Russian Defector Reports Putin Details

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Facts

  • The story of a Russian defector with access to the workings of Russian Pres. Putin's inner world and security arrangements were shared with the media this week after the defector fled Russia to Turkey last year. Gleb Karakulov gave a series of interviews to the Dossier Center, a UK-based investigative group funded by Russian opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky before those interviews were shared with the Associated Press and a range of European media.1
  • Now a wanted man in Russia, Karakulov worked as an engineer in the presidential communications department of the Federal Protective Service, known as the FSO. There he was responsible for setting up secure communications for Putin and other officials whenever a trip away from the Kremlin was arranged.1
  • Karakulov described Putin as increasingly isolated and paranoid — never seen using a mobile phone or the internet and insisting on strict COVID measures. He said the Russian President never traveled by plane out of fear of being tracked, opting instead for nondescript trains. In describing why he defected, Karakulov said: 'Our president has become a war criminal. It is time to end this war and stop being silent.'2
  • Elsewhere, as French Pres. Emmanuel Macron's visit to China continued, and Macron urged his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to help stop Russia's war in Ukraine. 'I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses and bring everyone back to the negotiating table,' Macron said in a joint press conference.3
  • Xi said: 'China advocates for peace talks and seeks a political solution,' while calling for 'rational restraint' from the international community. He said that both France and China had the 'ability and responsibility' to safeguard world peace.3
  • Meanwhile, in an interview with the Financial Times, Andrii Sybiha, an adviser to Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy said that if Ukraine succeeds with its spring counteroffensive and pushes Russian troops back to the administrative border of Crimea, Ukraine may be ready to open negotiations on the future of the peninsula. However, he added: 'It doesn't mean that we rule out the way of liberation [of Crimea] by our army.'4

Sources: 1Associated Press (a), 2Associated Press (b), 3BBC News and 4Ukrainska pravda.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by PBS NewsHour. This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a 'coup.' This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by National security archive. NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Predictions