Russian Anti-War Activist Dies Following 'Fall'

Facts

• Russian anti-war activist Olga Nazarenko has died in hospital two weeks after suffering a 'fall from a height.' Although the incident had been described as an accident, some online alleged that her opponents were responsible for her death.¹
• Despite repeatedly being detained by authorities, Nazarenko continued carrying out weekly protests that caused her to lose her position as an associate professor. She also appeared in a number of media reports and videos opposing the Kremlin.²
• The news came as the Ukrainian Air Force announced air-raid warnings overnight on Monday due to the threat of Russians using assault UAVs in Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia oblasts. It also warned of the use of ballistic missiles in the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.³
• Russian forces have reportedly ramped up attacks in the southern Kherson region and on the eastern front, seeking to cut off the supply route to Donetsk's Avdiivka and advance on Kharkiv's Kupiansk.⁴
• The gateway to the city of Donetsk, Avdiivka has reportedly contributed to a 90% spike in Russian casualties in the war — estimated at 150K to 190K since February 2022 — as Moscow pushes more soldiers to the frontline.⁵
• Meanwhile, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered his military to take at least 500 meters of territory every day from Russia to improve their position in Kyiv's counteroffensive — to date, a four-month effort that Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin claims has killed over 90K Ukrainian troops.⁶

Sources: ¹The Telegraph, ²MSN, ³Ukrainska Pravda, ⁴Reuters, ⁵Independent and ⁶RT.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by The Wall Street Journal. Russia's failed assault on Avdiivka shows how hard it is for Russian forces to shift the frontline. Though Putin wants to throw his reserves into costly operations around Ukraine's eastern cities, Moscow will suffer heavy losses as entrenched Ukrainian forces continue to hold back the Russian advance.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT International. The Ukrainian counteroffensive was doomed to fail from the start. It's clear Kyiv is bound to lose the war as Ukrainian troops have suffered enormous casualties. With an air offensive, Russia will exert more pressure on Kyiv, which explains why the West is now rushing more weapons to the battlefield.

Predictions