Russian Air Defense Destroyed in Further Attack on Crimea, Claims Ukraine

Facts

• In the second major attack on Crimea in two days, Ukraine on Thursday claimed to have destroyed a Russian air defense system on the peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.¹
• According to a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU), speaking to Ukrainska Pravda, Kyiv used two Neptune missiles in the attack and targeted Russia's S300/400 Triumf system in the western Crimean city of Yevpatoria.¹
• A Russian defense ministry statement on the attack did not mention missiles or acknowledge any damage. It instead stated that 11 drones were shot down over Crimea.²
• The defense ministry further said that an additional attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet was attempted by five unmanned motor boats, stating that all five were intercepted and destroyed.³
• In an attack on the Black Sea Fleet the previous day, which struck a shipyard in Sevastopol, a number of sources suggested that a Russian landing ship and a submarine were destroyed.⁴

Sources: ¹Ukrainska pravda (a), ²Tass (a), ³Tass (b) and ⁴Ukrainska pravda (b).

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska pravda. A Russian missile defense system was destroyed in a significant and successful Ukrainian attack on Yevpatoria on Thursday. Evidently, despite propagandist Kremlin claims to the contrary, the peninsula is vulnerable to attack and is less secure than Moscow would have its supporters believe.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. Russian air defenses shot down 11 drones in Thursday's attack on Crimea and there were no reports of damage resulting from the incident. Kyiv's claims of success come from a place of desperation, as their prospects of military victory continue to dwindle in the face of Russian forces.

Predictions