Russia Warns US of 'Fatal' Miscalculation as Ukraine Strikes Russia With HIMARS

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Facts

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned US leaders against a miscalculation that could lead to 'fatal consequences.' The remarks came in light of Pres. Joe Biden's change of policy last week, allowing Ukraine to launch limited strikes on Russian territory with US-supplied weapons.¹
• Speaking to Russian media on Monday, Ryabkov said: 'I would like to warn American leaders against miscalculations that could have fatal consequences. For unknown reasons, they underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive.'¹
• Shortly after his comments, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its latest analysis: 'Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-300/400 air defense battery in Belgorod Oblast likely with HIMARS on June 1 or 2.'²
• The decision to supply Ukraine with HIMARS, or High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, was first backed by the Biden administration in May 2022, three months after the outset of the conflict. At the time, that was on the proviso the weapons — with a range of 300 miles (482 km) — could not strike Russian territory.³
• Within hours of the US lifting that restriction on Friday, Ukrainian forces launched multiple attacks with HIMARS as well as US-supplied M42 rockets, fired from the track-mounted M270 rocket launcher system, into Russian territory.⁴
• In remarks on Monday, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, thanked Western partners for lifting some restrictions, but added that he was working on further removing others.⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Understandingwar, ³Politico, ⁴Kyiv Post and ⁵UKRINFORM.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Kyiv Post. Within hours of Western partners lifting restrictions, Ukraine used these weapons to great effect, striking Russian troop concentrations and military sites and destroying key Russian offensive weapons such as its Iskander-2 missile launcher, used to wage destruction on Ukrainian cities. These military changes of loosening the restrictions could help Ukraine win.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Reuters. World leaders — particularly those in America — continue to cross red lines, thinking Russia will not respond. This is a foolish strategy as one miscalculation could lead to a global conflict with fatal consequences for all. This was even stressed in the simplest terms by Pres. Putin recently, but these comments were still ignored.

Predictions