Russia Warns of 'War with Catastrophic Consequences'

Facts

• Top Russian diplomats this week made public comments cautioning Ukraine's foreign partners against an escalation of hostilities, each warning that the current trajectory will lead to a war of catastrophic scale.^[1][2]
• Yulia Zhdanova, who led the Russian delegation at the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control over the weekend told Russian news agency RIA Novosty that 'NATO has long been preparing for a potential armed clash with Russia, constantly working out possible options — from the Arctic to the Black Sea.'^[1][3]
• 'At the same time, very provocative steps are being taken in the Ukrainian direction; the range of the missiles supplied is steadily increasing, and the rhetoric about the possible sending of NATO troops to Ukraine continues,' she said, further stating: 'This 'game' could get out of control and lead to an escalation of the conflict with catastrophic consequences.'^[1][4]
• Meanwhile, in response to questions from Newsweek, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, 'Russia is open to a politico-diplomatic settlement that should remove the root causes of the crisis.' However, Russia insists it should retain control of four eastern regions of Ukraine which it says joined Russia via an internationally disputed referendum in 2022.^[2]
• 'At present, as far as we can see, restoring peace is not part of our adversary's plan,' Lavrov said. Referencing Washington and NATO's ongoing support to Ukraine and the authorization of the Ukrainian armed forces to use long-range missiles to strike Russian territory, Lavrov suggested, ''Playing with fire' in this way may lead to dangerous consequences.'^[2]
• In a further signal, Russian state media reported on Monday that the country's armed forces were seen transporting launch systems for nuclear-capable missiles — namely for the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) — to the city of Novosibirsk in the Siberia region. Russia reportedly conducted exercises with Yars ICBMs in July.^[5][6]

Sources: ^[1]Newsweek (a), ^[2]Newsweek (b), ^[3]Express.co.uk, ^[4]Sputnik International, ^[5]Newsweek (c) and ^[6]AA.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Newsweek. While Putin's nuclear signaling may be dangerous as it brings the world closer to the use of such weapons, there are some benefits in that it tells Ukraine's partners the limit of attacks that Russia can tolerate before it decides it's going nuclear. In either instance, the real threat of the use of nuclear weapons remains relatively low.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Lew Rockwell. Despite the rhetoric of politicians, NATO weapons and unmarked NATO soldiers are currently invading nuclear-armed Russia in its Kursk region. World War III has already begun and no one is talking about it.

Predictions