Russia, Ukraine Exchange Border Strikes After Russian Advance

Facts

• As Russia continues its latest advance into Ukraine, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian troops have reached between five and 10 km (6.2 miles) into Ukraine's Kharkiv region. Ukraine said 10 civilians were killed by Russian attacks Sunday and 40 captured.¹
• Russia's Belgorod region said two apartment buildings were damaged but no people were injured from a Ukrainian drone attack Monday morning. The day before, however, 13 were injured after multiple towns in Belgorod were attacked.²
• Russia said it also shot down 103 Ukrainian drones, including 62 flying over Russian regions such as Crimea. Six drones reportedly crashed into an oil refinery in Russia's southern Krasnodar region, forcing the facility to pause operations.³
• According to Ukrainian media, Russia has lost roughly 1.4K troops over the past day, as well as 14 tanks, 35 armored vehicles, and 50 artillery systems. It also said Russia used over 50 kamikaze drones in its attacks.⁴
• This comes as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov praised Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping's proposal to hold a peace conference on Ukraine, so long as both sides participate equally.⁵
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Saturday that Russia's recent advance into the country's second most populated city is 'tough.' He blamed the setbacks on 'insufficient supplies of military assistance,' citing Estonia's policy of sending 1% of GDP in aid as an example of what's needed.⁶

Sources: ¹Sky News, ²CNBC, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴UKRINFORM, ⁵TASS.com and ⁶CNN.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Euromaidan Press. Ukraine is currently on the defensive due to a previous lack of support from Western allies, but that could change thanks to emboldened statements coming out of Europe. Some European officials have even considered sending at least a limited number of troops to defend Kyiv. If NATO as a whole were to agree on this level of solidarity, Russia could be defeated.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT International. Russia has entered Kharkiv quite easily, which, while not an official victory on the ground, could spell defeat within the Western mind. With just a limited number of troops, Russia has captured 100 square kilometers of Ukraine's second most important city — this leaves Kharkiv severely wounded and vulnerable to stronger attacks in the future.

Predictions