Russia, Ukraine Accuse Each Other of Imminent Attack on Nuclear Plant

Facts

• Russia and Ukraine both accused each other of plotting to attack the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on Tuesday — the strategic site seized by Russia during the first weeks of the invasion that has since remained in Russian control.¹
• The nuclear plant — Europe's largest with six reactors, all now turned off — has remained at the center of allegations leveled by both countries over the course of the conflict. Both have blamed each other for rocket attacks that have struck the plant's grounds; both have also previously accused each other of planning something more sinister.¹
• On Tuesday, Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy said that in a call with French counterpart Emmanuel Macron — amid severe riots in France — he warned that Russia was planning "dangerous provocations" at the ZNPP. "We agreed to keep the situation under maximum control together with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)," Zelenskyy said.²
• Earlier in the day, Ukraine's military claimed to have intelligence that showed "external objects similar to explosive devices were placed on the outer roof of the third and fourth reactors" by Russian forces at the nuclear plant. "Their detonation should not damage power units, but may create a picture of shelling from the Ukrainian side."²
• Meanwhile in Russia, Renat Karchaa, an adviser to the head of the state-controlled nuclear firm Rosenergoatom, claimed to Russian media: "In the nighttime on July 5, Ukrainian troops will try to attack the ZNPP with the use of high-precision, long-range weapons and kamikaze drones. They plan to airdrop bombs stuffed with radioactive waste that were removed from the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant to a military airfield in Ukraine."³
• Neither Russia nor Ukraine commented on each other's claims. Meanwhile, neither country provided evidence to back up its assertions. As such, neither claim could be independently confirmed.¹

Sources: ¹US News & World Report, ²Barrons, and ³TASS.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has placed explosive devices on the roofs of the nuclear reactors. These devices will explode in such a way as to create the image of Ukrainian shelling. Russia will then mobilize its propaganda arm to try to blame the attack on Ukraine.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Ukraine will attempt to attack the ZNPP with long-range weapons and kamikaze drones. Worse still, it's planning to fill the weapons with radioactive waste from other nuclear plants. Actions must be taken to avoid this catastrophe.

Predictions