Russia Strikes Port Facilities in Odesa Ahead of Putin-Erdogan Talks

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Facts

  • Russia launched a wave of drone attacks on one of Ukraine's largest grain-exporting ports in the Odesa region on Monday — hours before Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss the resurrection of the now-collapsed gain deal.1
  • Oleh Kiper, head of Ukraine's military administration in Odesa, said that 17 Russian drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses in the space of the three-and-a-half-hour attack. 'Unfortunately, some targets were hit,' he said, adding that warehouses and production facilities, as well as agricultural equipment, were damaged in the attack.2
  • However, a statement from Russia's defense ministry said the attacks targeted a Ukrainian shipbuilding plant where unmanned motorboats were assembled using foreign-imported parts. Similar sea drones were used by Ukraine to strike the Kerch Bridge in Crimea in July, as well as in other attacks including on Russian vessels.3
  • Meanwhile, Ukraine's Border Guard Service said that during the drone attack in the early hours of Monday, two drones fell and detonated in the territory of NATO member Romania.4
  • In a statement, Romania's national defense ministry did not deny that the drones landed in its territory, but said it 'monitored, in real-time, the situation,' adding that: 'The drone attacks conducted by the Russian Federation did not pose any direct military threats against our national territory or Romania's territorial waters.'5
  • During Erdoğan's visit to the Russian resort of Sochi, the Turkish president stated that he and Putin discussed ways to revive the grain deal. Putin also reiterated an interest in restarting the agreement 'as soon' as curbs on Russian exports were lifted.6

Sources: 1Al Jazeera (a), 2Ukrinform, 3Tass, 4Ukrainska pravda, 5Romanian ministry of national defence and 6Al Jazeera (b).

Narratives

  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. Russia's reasons for leaving the grain deal is that Western countries have not moved to lift the sanctions off of Russian grain and fertilizer exports as was initially agreed to when the deal was first struck. Russia has seen no promising signs that these promises would be fulfilled but remains open to reviving the deal if the export issue is resolved.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. Despite Russia's claims, Western countries have provided Russia with a comprehensive guide of how a series of exemptions had been issued on the country's grain and fertilizer exports. Russia is using the stoppage of the deal to seek more concessions.

Predictions