Russia Says Wagner Chief Agreed to Move to Belarus

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Facts

  • Under a deal brokered by Belarusian Pres. Alexander Lukashenko, Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has agreed to move to Belarus after Kremlin said criminal charges against Prigozhin of mounting an armed mutiny will be dropped, and his troops will not be prosecuted for participating in the "march for justice."1
  • While Prigozhin's whereabouts are unknown, Alexander Gusev, the governor of Russia's southern Voronezh Oblast, said Sunday that Wagner troops — who on Saturday had seized all of the regional capital's military facilities — were leaving the region and that the travel and social restrictions would be lifted once "the situation is finally resolved."2
  • Previously, Prigozhin had announced that Wagner's troops heading to Moscow would return to their camps "according to plan" to avoid bloodshed. He claimed: "They wanted to disband PMC Wagner. On June 23, we went on a March of Justice in a day. We advanced on Moscow just 200km short, and during this time, we did not shed a single drop of the blood of our fighters."3
  • The announcements come after the Wagner chief voiced his anger at the Kremlin he left the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don with his soldiers. "The evil embodied by the country's military leadership must be stopped," Prigozhin said, warning the Russian army not to offer any resistance to his forces or he would "destroy everything" that stood in their way.4
  • Though Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov maintained he was "working at the Kremlin," there were reports of Putin leaving his official residence by plane. Unconfirmed reports also claim multiple business jets departed Moscow for St Petersburg, while unconfirmed reports also claimed Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov left for Turkey Saturday.5
  • Meanwhile, Peskov said that the Wagner troops who decided against participating in Friday's armed mutiny "would return to their camps and places of deployment," adding they are free to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry if they wish to.6

Sources: 1Reuters, 2The Kyiv Independent, 3RT, 4The Times of Israel, 5Independent, and 6TASS.

Narratives

  • Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Bloomberg. Wagner's revolt has exposed the fragility of Vladimir Putin's rule. It represents the most significant challenge to the Russian president in his over two decades in power. The mutiny also exposes vulnerabilities among Russian forces, with the country's military scrambling to defend the capital from the Wagner troops swiftly advancing toward Moscow. While Russia claims the rebellion will not impact its ongoing war with Ukraine, the chaos opens a window of opportunity for Kyiv to step up its counter-offensive.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. The mutiny is a stab in the back to the Russian forces and citizens in the middle of a Ukrainian counter-offensive. Using false accusations to justify his revolt, Prigozhin tried to divide the country and start a civil war. The Wagner chief played into the hands of the Western countries to destabilize Russia and undermine Putin's efforts to ensure international peace. External enemies must be ready to face repercussions if they try to use Russia's internal situation to achieve their Russophobic aims, meanwhile, the Kremlin is handling this situation appropriately.
  • Cynical narrative, as provided by Sky News. Prigozhin's stunt is a ridiculous attempt at mutiny ever, which is why the West must be wary of the so-called direct challenge to Putin's authority. Stripping the Wagner head of control and sending him to Belarus could be a ploy to wield power across the border. Ukraine should move cautiously against a possible attack on its soil from Belarus, as Russia may use Prigozhin to change the war's course. There is a lot going on behind the scenes.

Predictions