Russia Rehearses 'Massive' Nuclear Strike

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Facts

  • The Kremlin has announced that Russia has successfully tested its capacity to launch a 'massive' nuclear strike in retaliation to an enemy nuclear attack, shortly after the parliament passed a law withdrawing Russia's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) on Wednesday.1
  • The drill involved the test-firing of a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from a land-based silo in Russia's far east, a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine in the Barents Sea, and cruise missiles from Tu-95MS long-range bomber aircraft.2
  • Russian state television showed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and armed forces chief Valery Gerasimov briefing Pres. Vladimir Putin via video link as he supervised the exercise. Moscow, like Washington, sometimes carries out nuclear drills.3
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that the annual exercises of the Russian strategic nuclear forces had been scheduled in advance. He added that the ground, sea, and airborne components had achieved good results, accomplishing all goals set for the drills.1
  • The CTBT has never formally come into effect, but no country other than North Korea has carried out a test that involved a nuclear explosion this century. Russia's de-ratification allegedly aims at mirroring the position of the US, which has never ratified the treaty.4
  • These developments have caused concerns that Russia may restart nuclear testing to dissuade the West from backing Ukraine's military, with Moscow declining proposals from the US to resume talks over strategic stability and arms control due to the current hostile political climate.5

Sources: 1BBC News, 2Reuters, 3Al Jazeera, 4The Guardian and 5Independent.

Narratives

  • Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Real Clear Defense. The Kremlin has resorted to nuclear exercises and threats to intimidate the West, relying on a widespread notion that fear of nuclear warfare could pave the way for a victory against Ukraine. It's too dangerous for the US to take the bluff right now, especially as America has failed to ramp up its nuclear deterrence and Putin has shown his willingness to accept great casualties as he pursues expansionist goals.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT International. It's a matter of fact that Moscow has never intended to deploy nuclear weapons — the Kremlin has been left with few available options, as the US openly threatens Russia with a real war by stationing its nuclear arsenal in Europe and training NATO allies in using such weapons. Amid these exercises, Russia is merely seeking to enhance its readiness in the event of a nuclear attack from the West.

Predictions