Russia 'Losing Steam' in Bakhmut, Ukrainian Commander Says

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Facts

  • Russian forces in the Donetsk city of Bakhmut are "losing steam," Ukraine's commander of its armed forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Tuesday, pledging that his army will soon launch a conteroffensive to retake ground in the area.1
  • "The aggressor does not give up hope at any price to take Bakhmut, regardless of the losses in manpower or equipment," Syrskyi said. "The main forces of the Russian Federation in this direction are representatives of the Wagner PMC," he added, also stating that Ukrainian forces will "take advantage" of the situation "soon," as has been done previously "near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balakliya, and Kupiyansk."1
  • The account matched earlier analysis from the UK's defense ministry, which said in an intelligence assessment earlier in the week that "there is a realistic possibility that the Russian assault on the town is losing the limited momentum it had obtained."2
  • The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military think tank, also said earlier in the week that the tempo of Russian operations in Bakhmut appeared to be slowing amid reports that it's relocating some of its forces elsewhere.3
  • However, in its latest assessment, the ISW reported that Russian assaults in Bakhmut were continuing and said that it was still making marginal gains, including in positions to the east of the Bakhmutovka River which runs north to south across the middle of the city.4
  • Elsewhere in Donetsk, Russian forces launched a missile strike in the city of Kostiantynivka, reportedly striking a "invincibility center" — a location where Ukrainians can access electricity, heat and water amid widespread blackouts. Five civilians were killed and two more were injured. Meanwhile, two civilians were reported killed and 10 others were injured in shelling of the Sumy region, while one person was killed in attacks on Kherson. Attacks were also recorded in the regions of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk.5

Sources: 1Ukrainska Pravda (a), 2Evening Standard, 3Understandingwar (a), 4Understandingwar (b), and 5Ukrainska Pravda (b).

Narratives

  • Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. Russia's attacks on Bakhmut are losing momentum. Ukrainian forces will soon exhaust Moscow's attempts to take the city and will turn the tide on fighting to recover the ground.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Russia has practically surrounded Bakhmut and all supply roads in and out are controlled by its artillery fire. It's only a matter of time before Russia takes the city.

Predictions