Russia: Lavrov Says Wagner Continuing Africa Operations

Facts

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday reassured that thousands of troops from the Russian mercenary group Wagner will maintain their missions in Africa despite the armed uprising of Wagner forces in Russia over the weekend.¹
• "This work, of course, will continue," Lavrov said, referring in an interview with state broadcaster Russia Today (RT) to Wagner personnel he said were operating as instructors in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR).²
• The attempted Wagner rebellion under its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin will not affect the "strategic relationship" between Russia and its African allies, Lavrov emphasized, adding that the respective countries also have direct security deals with Moscow.³
• The Russian chief diplomat said Wagner is doing "a good job" in Africa and claimed Europe, notably France, "abandoned" Mali and the CAR, which turned to Moscow and Wagner for military instructors and to provide security for their leaders.⁴
• Wagner reportedly maintains 5K troops on the African continent, primarily in the CAR and Mali, where they arrived in December 2021. Wagner personnel are also deployed in other African countries such as Libya, Mozambique, and Sudan.⁵
• Meanwhile, the US State Dept. on Monday renewed its warning to African countries against cooperating with Wagner, claiming the weekend's events confirmed Washington's position that the mercenaries bring only "death and destruction" to the countries in which they operate.⁶

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²The Moscow Times, ³Al Arabiya English, ⁴Euronews, ⁵RFI, and ⁶Nation.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by India Narrative. While the collective West is alarmed that an increasing number of African countries are turning to Moscow and Wagner in search of stability, it is itself responsible for this shift. After all, it's the hypocritical West that's destabilizing Africa and fomenting conflict to get its hands on the continent's vast resources. The Ukraine war, in turn, is primarily a proxy war aimed at breaking Russia and then looting it. African nations are well aware of these realities, and in the new multipolar era, they are now siding with Moscow.
• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Politico. As part of Moscow's foreign policy, Wagner's mission is to back anti-Western African governments in return for access to the countries' vast natural resources. To expand Moscow's sphere of influence, Putin's mercenaries also rely on cyberwarfare and don't shy away from human rights abuses. However, recent events in Russia should be a wake-up call for all African rulers colluding with Moscow, as they show how the violence and state fragility represented by Wagner and Russia, respectively, might ultimately signal their own downfall.

Predictions