Russia Launches Major Offensive in Eastern Ukraine

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Facts

  • Russia has this week launched a major assault on the city of Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region, reportedly mobilizing thousands of troops and columns of armored vehicles for the attack.1
  • According to the Institute for the Study of War, a US military-affiliated think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the report, Russia has taken roughly 1.7 square miles (4.5 square km) of territory since launching the operation on Oct. 10.2
  • However, the assault has not come without costs for Russia. The Institute said: 'Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have likely lost at least a battalion tactical group’s worth of armored vehicles in offensive operations around Avdiivka. A reliable X [formerly] (Twitter) user observed on Oct. 12 that Ukrainian forces destroyed 33 Russian armored vehicles and 15 tanks since Oct. 10.'2
  • Vitalii Barabash, head of Ukraine's military administration in Avdiivka, described the situation as 'fierce and without a break' on Friday. Barabash stated that Russian forces were using 'everything they have' including small firearms, artillery, and aircraft.3
  • He added that, despite the ferocity of attacks, Ukrainian forces have been holding their positions for four days and said, 'I am sure they will withstand' while praising their battlefield prowess.3
  • Barabash further stated that in the past day, one civilian was killed and four were injured in Russian attacks. He warned that the real death toll may be higher with several civilians likely trapped under the rubble of damaged buildings, but have yet to be reached.3

Sources: 1Washington Post, 2Understandingwar and 3Ukrainska Pravda.

Narratives

  • Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Yahoo News. With Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's birthday on Oct. 7, Ukraine's intelligence services were aware of the coming attack on Avdiivka — meant as a present for him. This, along with the fact that forces told the locals of their plans in their downtime, meant Ukraine's forces were fully prepared and are now repelling and destroying the enemy attack.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. In an offensive supported by aircraft, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems, Russia continues to improve its positions in the Avdiivka direction and continues to gain ground.

Predictions