Russia Launches Biggest Attack on Ukraine in Months

Facts

• Russia on Friday launched its biggest attack on Ukraine in months, unleashing a total of 88 missiles and 63 drones in morning strikes. Ukraine's Air Force said that from those 151 targets, 55 drones were shot down and 37 missiles were destroyed.¹
• All 31 missiles that were headed for Kyiv were destroyed, the air force added. It was the first time the Ukrainian capital was targeted in six weeks and came as the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan traveled to the city for talks with Ukrainian leadership.²
• However, with so many drones and missiles breaking through missile defenses in other parts of Ukraine, blasts were recorded in nine other regions of the country. At the time of reporting, at least five civilians are dead and 14 more are injured. Three people are considered missing.³
• Russia's strikes largely targeted Ukraine's critical infrastructure — knocking out power stations and energy suppliers in the cities of Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaprizhzhia. In the wider Zaproizhzhia region, Russian missiles struck the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant. Energy facilities were also struck in the regions of Lviv and Vinnytsia.³
• Friday's attacks come after Ukraine — on the back foot on the frontlines and with dwindling ammunition — has increasingly taken to launching missiles of its own into Russia over the past several weeks. Earlier in the week, the governor of the border region of Belgorod ordered the evacuation of 9K children and for schools to be closed on Friday.⁴
• According to Ukrainian sources who spoke to the Financial Times, US officials have in recent days repeatedly urged Ukrainian counterparts to halt their targeting of Russian energy infrastructure — warning that actions provoke a retaliation, but also that they could negatively impact global oil prices before the US elections.⁵

Sources: ¹Ukrainska Pravda (a), ²CNN, ³Ukrainska Pravda (b), ⁴Associated Press and ⁵Financial Times.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Financial Times. While the US under the Biden administration continues to be Ukraine's closest supporter, what Ukraine must understand is that oil prices have a major impact on US elections, and striking Russia's supplies could dramatically change global costs — even despite the sanctions. Having Biden lose the 2024 election over the cost of gas won't help Ukraine achieve its war aims.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. The energy infrastructure targets are directly tied to Ukraine's armed forces and command and control. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Predictions