Russia Escalates Attacks as Ukraine Suffers Continued Ammo Shortages

Facts

• Following the fall of the Donetsk city of Avdiivka to Russian troops over the weekend, Russian forces have launched multiple attacks to the west of the city in an effort to secure further battlefield gains.¹
• Russian forces have also intensified their efforts in numerous areas across the front line, according to the latest update from Ukraine's armed forces.²
• In addition to the Avdiivka front, Monday's statement said Russian forces had escalated attacks near Bakhmut, Marinka, and Lyman elsewhere in Donetsk, as well as in the regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Kherson.²
• The latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the conflict, said that in launching these attacks, Russia is likely exploiting Ukraine's ammunition shortages — namely in artillery munitions and missile-defense rockets — created by delays in Western military aid.³
• 'Delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine are likely helping Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations along several sectors of the frontline in order to place pressure on Ukrainian forces along multiple axes,' ISW said.³
• The analysis also noted that Russia is likely seeking to take advantage of ground conditions before Ukraine's coming rasputitsa season — when the spring weather thaws the ice, making terrain muddy and complicating ground operations.³

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Ukrainska Pravda and ³Understandingwar.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. The US passage of a $60B military aid package for Ukraine is a positive step towards addressing the issue of Kyiv's ammunition shortages, but it's just as important that European countries plug their own spending gaps and elevate their aid commitments. If Ukraine continues to fall short of ammunition and key supplies, it will face a slow-motion defeat on the battlefield that would spell disaster for the risk of future Russian expansionism against NATO.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Following the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has now clearly failed. Committing further funding to arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have attempted to fight this war against Russia without US and EU weapons. Now that this support is running dry, Ukraine must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.

Predictions