Russia Hosts Talks Between Turkey, Syria

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Facts

  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Tuesday met with his counterparts from Turkey, Syria, and Iran in Moscow in a bid to rebuild Turkish-Syrian ties after years of bilateral tensions over the Syrian Civil War.1
  • According to separate statements by Ankara and Moscow, the four ministers reaffirmed their intention to preserve Syria's territorial integrity as well as the importance of stepping up efforts to ensure the swift return of Syrian refugees to their home country.2
  • A day earlier, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Ankara was seeking a settlement of the conflict in Syria within the framework of the Moscow-brokered four-way talks.3
  • The high-level gathering comes after the deputy foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia, Iran, and Syria held talks during a two-day meeting in Russia in early April and agreed to continue consultations on the Syrian situation.4
  • The reconciliation process between Ankara and Damascus launched in late December 2022 with a meeting of the defense ministers of Russia, Syria, and Turkey in Moscow. Russia backs the Syrian government, as does Iran, which has since also joined the consultations.5
  • Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu emphasized on Monday that Ankara will not withdraw its troops from northern Iraq and Syria, claiming such a move would result in a "power vacuum that terrorists would rush to fill."6

Sources: 1Al Arabiya English, 2Reuters, 3AL, 4Middle East Monitor, 5Middle East Eye, and 6Daily Sabah.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by DAWN. Turkey's further détente with Syria is a blow to Syrian rebels and their fight against the brutal Assad regime. Yet, while Erdoğan has moved away from the goal of regime change in Syria as part of Turkish-Syrian reconciliation, Turkey is unlikely to withdraw from Syria and abandon its local client forces in its fight against the Kurdish YPG group. Despite recent signs of improvement, it would be naive to expect ties between Ankara and Damascus to return to normal anytime soon.
  • Narrative B, as provided by PressTV. Turkey has not only deployed troops in Syria, violating Syria's territorial integrity, but has also played a key role in backing militants seeking to topple the Assad government. However, this only underscores the need for talks to resolve differences between Damascus and Ankara, taking into account mutual security interests. The talks in Moscow, backed by regional power Iran, offer Turkey a unique opportunity to work with credible mediators for peace while improving Ankara's security calculus.

Predictions