Russia Continues Bombardment of Avdiivka

Facts

• Russia continued to shell the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka — located in the southern region of Kherson and home to a massive coal heating plant — Thursday night, with the head of the city's military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, telling reporters they've seen 18 or more aerial attacks per day in its Russia's 'fiercest' attacks yet. Prosecutors said the attacks killed four people.¹
• As Russia continues its attempt to control Avdiivka, where only 1.4K of its pre-war population of 32K still remains, Russian forces also killed six and wounded five throughout Ukraine, including in a cluster bomb attack in a Kherson suburb. Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said both sides are using such bombs, though critics say they litter the ground and kill more civilians than soldiers.²
• According to the British Defense Ministry, Russian forces have also suffered 'mass casualties from Ukrainian long-range precision strikes well behind the front line.' It said, 'likely over 70 Russian troops were killed in a strike on a convoy of trucks' on Nov. 10, and a Nov. 19 'strike on Russian troops attending an award ceremony or concert in Kumachove...likely caused tens of casualties.'³
• Ukraine has also made strategic advancements across the Dnipr River — Europe's fourth-longest river that serves as a natural defensive barrier and a key front in the war — gaining a foothold on the left bank. While Russian forces have been pushed back from Kherson city, they've been able to continue air strikes from across the river, intensifying attacks on residential areas.⁴
• In addition, Ukrainian crops have entered the winter in good condition. However, its 2023-24 grain exports, such as winter wheat, winter barley, and winter rapeseed, are operating at a 28% decline compared to a year earlier. Amid fears over Russian attacks on energy facilities, Kyiv also said it can't produce enough electricity to meet the growing demand for heating and is turning to EU countries for help.³
• On the information war front, Russia's Tagansky city court on Thursday fined tech giant Google for allegedly discrediting Russian troops. The same court had previously fined the company after its subsidiary YouTube promoted videos portraying non-traditional relationships as well as 'rooftopping,' which is the often illegal exploration of high buildings and industrial spots.⁵

Sources: ¹CNBC, ²Al Jazeera, ³The Guardian, ⁴CNN and ⁵Archive.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. Even Kyiv will admit that it has yet to achieve the territorial goals of its counteroffensive, but that's a typical phase of any war. What this stalemate means is that Ukraine will now be able to regroup and rearm and come back stronger in its next attack. Ukraine has already broken through the frontline — entering areas previously held by Russia — which shows the war is far from over.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT International. This stalemate is not at all a sign of progress for Ukraine, let alone a victory. European powerhouse Germany is now admitting that it's running out of funding to support more military aid to Kyiv. If Berlin — on top of the several other Western nations showing signs of war fatigue — can't fuel Ukraine's army, then Kyiv's hope for a continued counteroffensive will be dashed.

Predictions