Russia Captures Vuhledar in Donetsk

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Facts

  • Russian forces have captured the Donetsk town of Vuhledar, Ukraine's military confirmed on Wednesday, after geolocated footage showed them freely roaming the town and raising Russian flags from a number of buildings.[1][2]
  • The Russian news agency TASS, citing sources in the country's defense ministry, reported that its forces have cleared Ukrainian troops from the town — referred to as Ugledar in Russia.[3]
  • The news was also spread on the SHOT Telegram channel, as well as among pro-Russian war bloggers, who said that Moscow's troops had complete control of the town which Russia claims to have annexed since 2022, though Kyiv has deemed this illegal.[4]
  • A Telegram post from a junior sergeant in the 24th Aid Assault Battalion described Ukrainian forces 'leaving the wounded to be shot by the enemy,' after Russian drone strikes forced them out of the town.[5]
  • Elsewhere in Donetsk, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which tracks troop positions in the conflict, reported that Russian forces made confirmed gains in positions east and southeast of the city of Pokrovsk over the past day, as well as inside the city of Toretsk, where fighting has been ongoing.[1]
  • ISW further reported confirmed Russian advances near Kharkiv City in Kharkiv, and near Kremmina in the Luhansk region.[1]

Sources: [1]Understandingwar, [2]Newsweek, [3]TASS, [4]France 24 and [5]The Hill.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Reuters. The capture of Vuhledar is significant because of its proximity to important frontline areas, and because it lies on high ground that will facilitate further Russian artillery attacks. Its capture could hasten further Russian advances in the region.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Understandingwar. Russia's seizure of Vuhledar follows a series of costly, failed assaults over the course of two years of war. Its fall is unlikely to have a significant impact on Ukraine's defense, as it was not a particularly important logistics location, and because Russian forces have controlled most of the main roads running into Vuhledar prior to its capture.

Predictions