Russia Blames Armenia for Breakdown of Nagorno-Karabakh Talks

Facts

• Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Thursday accused Armenia of abandoning peace talks with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, citing significant differences between Yerevan's official statements and its actions while urging its return to negotiations.
• This statement comes a month after Armenia pulled out of peace talks. Its Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated on Tuesday that the country would not host Russian-led post-Soviet Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CTSO) military drills, deeming Russian military presence a security threat.
• Armenian officials have increasingly expressed their anger at Moscow, blaming Russian peacekeepers for allegedly failing to end a month-long blockade along the Lachin corridor, the only land corridor linking the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia.
• Non-stop sit-in demonstrations, allegedly motivated by ecological claims that Nagorno-Karabakh's self-proclaimed government is conducting an illegal mining operation, have been carried out by a group of Azerbaijanis since Dec. 12, potentially violating the 2020 ceasefire provision for the freedom movement of Armenians along Lachin.
• This comes as Baku seeks to take advantage of a favorable international environment to push for a deal that would complete its victory following the short war in 2020, when it recovered much of the territory it had lost to Yerevan in the first war, fought in the 1990s.
• Six weeks of intense clashes in the fall of 2020 claimed over 6.5K lives before a Moscow-brokered truce ended hostilities, with Armenia ceding swathes of the territory and Russia deploying some 2K peacekeepers to oversee the ceasefire.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters, CNN, Economist, and Daily Sabah.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. Russia has been committed to providing a platform for peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but Yerevan has shown ambiguous signs of whether it is interested in solving the problems within the Russian-proposed framework or pursuing a Western-backed solution to this conflict. If Armenians are really willing to implement the trilateral agreements, they ought to return to negotiations.
• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by OC Media. Moscow has turned its back on Yerevan despite evidence that Azerbaijan had violated its CSTO ally's sovereignty. The Kremlin is no longer interested in the South Caucasus region and has to deal with ongoing military failures in Ukraine. After Russia has proved to be an untrustworthy and weak partner, it is time for Armenia to diversify its foreign policy portfolio and security alliances.

Predictions