Russia Advances as Ukraine Makes 'Tough Decisions' on Ammunition
Amid floundering Western military aid, Ukraine is being forced to limit its use of artillery and ammunition — leading to renewed Russian advances in recent days.
Facts
- Amid floundering Western military aid, Ukraine is being forced to limit its use of artillery and ammunition — leading to renewed Russian advances in recent days.1
- Speaking to reporters before the US Senate voted on a spending package that included $60B of military aid to Ukraine on Tuesday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Ukrainian commanders "are making some pretty dang tough decisions about what they're going to expend and how they’re going to operate with what they have," if more aid isn't soon coming their way.2
- The package then received 49 votes later in the day — falling short of the 60 required to advance it past the Senate stage.3
- With US aid tied up, the burden has fallen on the EU to pick up the slack. It will attempt to approve two packages totaling €55B ($59.25B) on Thursday. However, even if approved, it could be weeks before Ukraine sees the military supplies it needs.4
- Speaking from the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday, the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said that due to manufacturing capacity, the EU will not be able to provide Ukraine with 1M rounds of ammunition by March as previously promised. He said 524K shells will be delivered by that time frame, adding that a total of 1.1M will be delivered by the end of the year.4
- Reports suggest that the lack of ammunition is already having a tangible effect on the battlefield. According to the most recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, which tracks troop positions during the conflict, Russia has advanced in multiple areas of the Donetsk region in the last 24 hours — namely near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and the village of Niu York. Russia also made confirmed gains near Donetsk's border with Zaporizhzhia over the past day.5
Sources: 1Washington Examiner, 2The White House, 3The Guardian, 4POLITICO and 5Understandingwar.
Narratives
- Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Los Angeles Times. These are now desperate times for Ukraine. Without additional US funding, Ukrainian soldiers may be left without missile defense rockets or basic ammunition to stave off Russian Pres. Putin's invasion. While Ukraine has successfully defended itself for two years, unless more funds are approved, the frontline situation might quickly erode. The US and Ukraine will then have to grapple with the real prospect of Russia winning this war. Congress needs to act immediately if this future is to be avoided.
- Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Aside from the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed and it is now losing the war. More money for arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have fought this war against Russia without US and EU weapons and now that these weapons are running dry, it must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.
