Russia Accuses Ukraine of Downing Military Plane, Killing 65 Ukrainian PoWs

Facts

• Russia's Defense Ministry on Wednesday accused Ukraine of deliberately downing a military transport plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war. If confirmed, it would be the deadliest Ukrainian act inside Russia's internationally recognized borders since the war began.¹
• Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said there were no survivors aboard the Ilyushin Il-76 that crashed in a village in his region. He added that there were 65 PoWs, six crew members and three security staff aboard the flight.²
• The defense ministry statement said the plane was 'performing a scheduled flight' when Russian radar systems 'observed the launch of two Ukrainian missiles' towards the transport vehicle. It further alleged that Ukraine was aware the plane was taking that route ahead of an agreed prisoner swap.³
• It also claimed that 'Ukrainian leadership' had been 'aware that ... Ukrainian servicemen would be transported by military transport aircraft to the Belgorod airfield' for a prisoner swap. However, it added that an 'earlier agreement' had arranged for the exchange to 'take place in the afternoon at the Kolotilovka checkpoint on the Russian-Ukrainian border.'¹
• Video of the crash on social media showed the plane falling towards a rural, snowy area before erupting into a ball of flames. Ukrainian officials did not immediately confirm or deny Russia’s allegations about the crash, but said they are looking into the details.⁴
• Earlier in the day, citing a source in the country's armed forces, Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported that Kyiv was responsible for the incident. However, it later amended its report to say that a different source failed to confirm this information.⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²TASS, ³NBC, ⁴Associated Press and ⁵Ukrainska Pravda.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated Press. Despite Russia's accusations, exactly who was on the plane and how it went down are yet to be independently confirmed. Various events in this war have prompted a raft of conflicting accusations and, especially amid a sensitive story such as this, it's important that evidence is presented before any conclusions are reached. In the meantime, Ukrainian officials have said they are looking into what happened on their side and will comment in due course.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. This was an insane act of barbarism on the part of Ukraine. Not only did the nation sabotage sensitive prisoner swap negotiations, they violated their bond and obligations to their own citizens, showing an utter disregard for their lives. Actions such as these seriously call into question whether Russia can ever enter into any security agreements or negotiations with Ukraine.

Predictions