Romania: Pro-EU Parties Agree to Form Coalition to Counter Nationalists

Facts

• Romania's pro-European parties — namely the Social Democrats (PSD), the Liberals (PNL), the Save Romania Union (USR), the ethnic Hungarians (UDMR), and national minorities — on Wednesday signed a joint resolution on the formation of a future coalition.^[1][2]
• Together, the coalition is close to a two-thirds majority in both the lower Chamber of Deputies and the upper Senate. In the Dec. 1 parliamentary elections, the PSD won the largest vote share at 22%, the PNL and the USR third and fourth at 13% and 12% respectively, and the UDMR seventh at 6%.^[3][4]
• This coalition deal comes despite George Simion — leader of Romania's second-largest party, the nationalist Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) — expressing a desire to be part of a government coalition. However, Simion has specifically ruled out a deal with the PSD.^[4][5]
• Last Sunday's vote comes amid political uncertainty following a surprising first-round presidential election the previous weekend, which saw long-shot candidates Călin Georgescu and Elena Lasconi advancing to a run-off on Dec. 8.^[6][7]
• An exit poll conducted last Sunday found that Georgescu would defeat Lasconi, 57.8% to 42.2%. Among other responsibilities, the president-elect appoints the next prime minister if none has been chosen before the runoff.^[8][5][9]
• Romania's president also has significant decision-making powers, including overseeing defense and foreign policy and representing the country internationally. A win for Lasconi would boost the pro-Western coalition, while a win for Georgescu would put the coalition at odds with the presidency.^[9][10]

Sources: ^[1]Bloomberg, ^[2]Agerpres, ^[3]Romania Insider, ^[4]Europe Elects on X, ^[5]Euractiv, ^[6]POLITICO, ^[7]Al Jazeera, ^[8]Reuters, ^[9]Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and ^[10]The European Conservative.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by European Pravda. It's great news that the pro-European camp in Romania has agreed to form a coalition to fend off the rise of far-right, pro-Russia parties in the legislature, which will hold at least a third of the seats. Given that extremists could even elect the next president of Romania this weekend, this push for moderate unity was much needed.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by RT International. It's no surprise that mainstream parties have lost support and that nationalists have surged in the latest parliamentary elections. Once again, Romanians have shown they are fed up with bureaucrats in Bucharest dragging their country into the war in Ukraine, which only serves the interests of NATO, the EU, and the US military-industrial complex.

Predictions