RFK Jr. Wins Removal from NC Ballot, Loses Michigan Bid

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Facts

  • Former independent candidate for US president Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Monday received mixed results in his attempt to be removed from the ballot in certain swing states since he withdrew from the race and endorsed the Republican nominee, former Pres. Donald Trump.[1]
  • In Michigan, the state Supreme Court reversed a lower-court decision and ruled Kennedy must stay on that state's ballot. In a brief order, the court said Kennedy 'has not shown an entitlement to this extraordinary relief.'[1]
  • Meanwhile, the North Carolina Supreme Court upheld an appeals court's ruling to remove Kennedy from the ballot there.[2]
  • Although North Carolina must now reprint more than 2.9M ballots, Justice Trey Allen wrote the state constitution requires it to incur the expense 'to protect voters' fundamental right to vote their conscience and have that vote count.'[2]
  • Kennedy suspended his campaign on Aug. 23 and requested to be removed from the ballot in 10 competitive states. So far, Kennedy has lost his bid in Wisconsin and now Michigan. He has successfully been removed from the ballots in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, in addition to North Carolina.[3][2]
  • Polling is inconclusive about whether Kennedy's withdrawal will help Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, more in the general election. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by fewer than 11K votes but lost it in 2020 by approximately 154K votes.[4]

Sources: [1]Associated Press, [2]Forbes, [3]Verity and [4]New York Times.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by Daily Wire. In places like Michigan, where the state Supreme Court is led by Democrats, confusion is sure to reign because of rulings that are meant to protect Harris from Kennedy voters switching to Trump. Keeping Kennedy off the ballot in such a partisan manner is sure to further reduce the public's faith in US election integrity.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Newsweek. Kennedy may think this is a political game he can control in order to steer voters to the candidate of his choice, but states can't just change direction based on the pleas of one man. Trump and Kennedy have no choice but to hope electors where Kennedy's lawsuits have failed don't vote for someone who pulled out of the race months before the election.

Predictions