RFK Jr. May Drop Out of Race and Endorse Trump, Running Mate Says

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Facts

  • In an interview posted Monday, the running mate of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Nicole Shanahan, said that Kennedy is considering dropping out of the race in order to 'join forces with Donald Trump.' Kennedy will reportedly make an address Friday regarding his political future.[1][2]
  • Shanahan said that they are also mulling staying in the race and forming a 'new party,' but that they may 'draw more votes from Trump' and increase the odds of Democrat Kamala Harris winning the election. Shanahan blamed the Democratic Party for turning their ticket 'into a spoiler.'[3]
  • In a statement to the media, Shanahan said that any potential backing of Trump would be contingent on 'a significant commitment' to giving Kennedy a position with 'true authority.' Kennedy and Trump reportedly met during the Republican National Convention and discussed potential roles the former could occupy in a Trump administration.[4]
  • A report from the Washington Post alleged that Kennedy also reached out to the Harris campaign to discuss a potential cabinet position, a report that Kennedy denied. Shanahan, a former Democratic donor, also accused the party of trying to 'disrupt' their campaign through various means.[5]
  • On social media, Kennedy said that he is 'willing to talk with leaders of any political party,' while Trump was quoted on Tuesday as saying that he would 'love' Kennedy's endorsement. The Kennedy campaign has slowed down campaigning as its cash reserves have also decreased, according to Federal Election Commission filings.[6][4]
  • In terms of betting markets, on the news of a potential Kennedy withdrawal and endorsement of Trump, the odds of the Republican winning the election on Polymarket increased to 52%, with Harris sitting at 47%. Betting market aggregator Election Betting Odds has Trump favored over Harris by 49.3%-49.1%, erasing the 5.5% lead Harris had on Monday.[7]

Sources: [1]Reuters, [2]Washington Post, [3]Politico, [4]ABC News, [5]FOX News, [6]Axios and [7]Forbes.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by CTVNews. This is heartening news for Republicans, as the RFK Jr. campaign wakes up to the fact that the Democratic Party is the biggest threat to freedom, as they try mercilessly to shut down the Kennedy-Shanahan campaign. The Kennedy-Shanahan ticket deserves plaudits for acknowledging that a Harris presidency would be a disaster and that Trump would welcome independent-minded voters into the fold.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. The mask is finally off on the Kennedy campaign, as they finally admit that they are far from independent or authentically populist and instead seek to aid the Republicans in November. Kennedy has ceaselessly attempted to court the support of the Trump campaign, as his running mate also says that Trump would be better for the country than Harris. The third-party guise is fooling no one, as Kennedy inches closer to a Trump endorsement and potential future Trump-aligned role.
  • Narrative C, as provided by X. Kennedy's potential dropout doesn't speak to the weakness of his campaign but to its strength. The fact that an independent, grass-roots movement has brought the Democrats and Republicans to the table to vie for his support goes to show the power that a third party can wield. The Kennedy campaign is about solutions, not partisanship, and they will work with whoever will commit to making the country better.

Predictions