Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Harris Leads Trump 44% to 42%
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday showed Vice Pres. Kamala Harris has a two percentage point lead over former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump....
Facts
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday showed Vice Pres. Kamala Harris has a two percentage point lead over former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump.1
- According to the poll held among 1,018 voters, Harris's lead expanded to a four-point margin (42-38%) lead when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included in the ballot.2
- This is a shift from an earlier poll by the same pollsters in which Pres. Joe Biden, who bowed out of the race Sunday, trailed Trump by two points.3
- Around 56% of the voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos thought 59-year-old Harris was 'mentally sharp,' compared to 49% who said the same of 78-year-old Trump.1
- This comes as a poll by Morning Consult put Trump two points ahead of Harris. However, this is a drop from the former president's six-point lead over Biden.4
- In other polling, Harris also reportedly had slightly higher approval ratings than Biden in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, according to a July 16-18 poll of key swing states by Redfield & Wilton Strategies.5
Sources: 1Reuters, 2Forbes, 3The Telegraph, 4Ft and 5France 24.
Narratives
- Democratic narrative, as provided by NPR Online News. With Biden stepping aside from the presidential race, the political landscape has shifted significantly, as shown by multiple polls since Sunday. Harris has some time to solidify her support base, build her platform, and woo undecided voters and potentially those considering Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Americans have broadly agreed with Biden's decision to step away, and Harris' momentum has snowballed.
- Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. The left-leaning media is predictably gushing with support for Kamala Harris after the Democratic Party's veritable toppling of the unpopular Joe Biden. But polling bumps come and go in the course of a long election season and Trump still leads according to some surveys. Kamala Harris is an untested political figure and soon she will have to answer tough questions on issues including the US southern border. More skepticism about Harris is likely to enter polls in the weeks ahead.
- Narrative C, as provided by Northeastern Global News. With Biden out, reliable data on 'Harris vs Trump' will take a few more days to emerge. For now, pollsters are merely replacing Biden with Harris in questioning. While this may offer some insights, they are unlikely to be comprehensive. Understanding variations on key issues and demographics will take more time, especially as Harris' platform emerges.
