Poll: Biden Leads Over Potential GOP 2024 Candidates

Facts

• According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, which polled 4,410 US adults nationwide, Pres. Joe Biden holds an advantage over potential Republican challengers Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis in early 2024 Presidential Election matchups, specifically possessing a six-point lead over his predecessor in a hypothetical match-up.¹
• This comes despite the fact that his public approval rating has recently dropped to 40% — the lowest level seen this year — according to the CNN "Poll of Polls," which averages the most recent national polls.²
• Last week, a Washington Post-ABC News poll of 1,006 US adults found that Biden was trailing both Trump and DeSantis, with most of the 396 Democratic-leaning respondents wanting the party to nominate someone other than Biden as its candidate in 2024.³
• Nearly a year away from the first presidential primary, underdog Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson have launched their campaigns challenging Biden, who officially launched his re-election bid on April 25.⁴
• Seven Republicans have already entered the race for the GOP presidential nomination, including frontrunner former Pres. Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, with Gov. DeSantis and former VP Mike Pence among those expected to declare candidacy soon.⁵
• As of May 5, the '270toWin' 2024 Presidential Consensus Electoral Map gave Democrats a slight advantage over Republicans, as five combinations in the four toss-up states — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — would secure them the 270 electoral votes needed, while the GOP would need to win three of the four states.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²CNN, ³Washington Post, ⁴CBS, ⁵Politico, and ⁶270toWin.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by CNN. Though Biden may not be the best Democratic candidate in recent memory, he's a strong opponent and is the only Democrat who can take on what will likely be a race against Donald Trump. As the Republican party slides toward extremism, the US needs a president who has defeated MAGA before, especially as 2024 looks to be another existential election for American democracy.
• Republican narrative, as provided by New York Post. The American people don't want to see Joe Biden win a second term in the White House. Besides his dwindling mental capacity, Biden has made a series of horrendous mistakes that have seriously damaged the US. From shoddy domestic policies that have undermined the economy to throwing away millions of dollars through his catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden has been a terrible president and must be defeated in 2024.

Predictions

Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?

Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.

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