Republic of Georgia's Ruling Party Claims Election Victory

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Facts

  • Georgian Pres. Salome Zourabichvili has called for protests outside parliament on Monday after the country's ruling party, Georgian Dream, secured 54% of the vote in Saturday's disputed parliamentary election.[1]
  • The country's electoral commission said that the Georgian Dream had won 89 seats in the 150-seat parliament — far more than the 76 needed to form a government and appoint a prime minister.[2][3]
  • Georgia's opposition parties — Gvaramia, Melia, Girchi, and Droa — have claimed that the elections were 'stolen' and will share evidence of election fraud with 'local and international observers.'[4]
  • Two exit polls — by Edison and HarrisX — put the opposition ahead of the Georgian Dream, 51.9% to 40.9% and 48% to 42%, respectively. A third poll by Imedi TV found that the ruling party would win with 56% of the votes.[5][6]
  • Cases of physical altercations were reported at multiple polling stations across the country, with voting being suspended at a polling station in Marneuli's 69th precint due to the violence.[7][8]
  • The vote on Saturday was widely considered a referendum on whether the former Soviet nation should align with the West or Russia, even as the Georgian Dream maintains that EU membership is a goal for 2030.[9][10]

Sources: [1]BBC News (a), [2]Reuters, [3]Dw.Com, [4]Georgia Today, [5]New York Times, [6]BBC News (b), [7]POLITICO, [8]CNN, [9]Wsj and [10]Washington Post.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. The opposition should feel disappointment that Georgian Dream may emerge as the winner. However, given the election violations reported, and the fact that the party is unlikely to secure a constitutional majority, the opposition must celebrate its own survival.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Sputnik International. Western powers sought to interfere in this election but to no avail. The people of Georgia delivered a decisive message of support and a clear mandate for a party that supports conservative values and, contrary to the smear campaigns, integration into Europe.

Predictions