Reports: Zelenskyy Might Still Replace Top General

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Facts

• Following rumors that Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, was dismissed earlier in the week — prompting denials from the Ukrainian president's office — new reports in Western media have suggested that Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy may still be preparing to sack the army leader.¹
• Speculation started to swirl when Zaluzhnyi, who's been in the role since July 2021, was summoned for a meeting with Zelenskyy on Monday. Reports about his alleged dismissal soon started to appear in a number of prominent Ukrainian news outlets and other media.²
• However, despite the denials, publications including the BBC, the Guardian, the Economist, and the Financial Times — citing officials with knowledge of the meeting — soon shed more light on the encounter.³
• According to the Financial Times, who spoke with four officials, Zaluzhnyi was offered a new role as a defense adviser but turned it down. Two of the sources told the publication that Zelenskyy had made clear to Zaluzhnyi that irrespective of whether he took the position, he would be dismissed from his current role. All of the sources told the FT that a decision to dismiss the general had in fact already been made, but that Zelenskyy may wait for some time following the reaction on social media.¹
• Further complicating matters, the Times of London reported that once Zaluzhnyi returned to his office and told deputies, 'I’m packing my things,' senior military commanders and international partners — including the US and UK — pressured Zelenskyy into reversing his decision.⁴
• While it remains unclear if the sacking will ultimately take place, reports suggested that a decision to remove Zaluzhnyi may also be hampered by the lack of suitable replacements. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's ground forces, is reportedly unpopular among certain stakeholders. Meanwhile, questions hang over 38-year-old Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, due to his inexperience and the fact that he has never commanded an armed force — let alone one that employs more than 1M people.³

Sources: ¹The Financial Times, ²Independent, ³Ukrainska Pravda and ⁴Times.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The Hill. Zaluzhnyi is a widely trusted general and has commanded Ukraine's Armed Forces since before the Russian invasion. Losing a competent, respected, and combat-tested leader at a time when the country is hanging on for territory would be a colossal mistake and one that should be avoided. No one is more suitable for the job than him.
• Narrative B, as provided by Euromaidan Press. While Zaluzhnyi is a trusted leader, reports suggest that disagreements between Zelenskyy and him date back to the spring of 2022 and have again flared in recent weeks. Though sacking him may be unpopular, the decision to fire him needs to be taken as Ukraine cannot have a situation where its military and political leadership are not coordinated.

Predictions