Reports: Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet From Crimea

Facts

  • Following a series of Ukrainian attacks, Russia has withdrawn the majority of its Black Sea Fleet from Crimea, according to a Wall Street Journal report published on Wednesday.1
  • Citing British intelligence officials and satellite imagery, The Telegraph has also reported that 'fleet activities are likely relocating to Novorossiysk in the face of threats to Sevastopol.'2
  • Previously, the US military think tank the Institute for the Study of War had claimed that Russia had transferred at least ten vessels from Sevastopol to a port in Novorossiysk 'to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in occupied Crimea.'3
  • The reports come after Aslan Bzhania, leader of the pro-Russia breakaway region of Abkhazia in Georgia, said he had signed a deal with Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin to host a permanent naval base for Russia's navy in the territory's coastal region of Ochamchira.4
  • Russia's Black Sea Fleet, based in Sevastopol on the Moscow-occupied Crimean Peninsula, has been repeatedly targeted by Kyiv's forces since Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022.5
  • On Sept. 13, a large landing vessel and a submarine were reportedly damaged beyond repair after Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy launched a pre-dawn missile attack on a Russian shipyard in Sevastopol.6

Sources: 1Wall Street Journal, 2The telegraph, 3Understandingwar, 4Reuters, 5BBC News and 6Guardian.

Narratives

  • Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Atlantic council. Reports of Russia's fleet retreats from Crimea are the latest setback for Putin as it shows that Ukraine is winning the battle for the Black Sea. The feat is even more remarkable given that Ukraine doesn't have a functioning navy but has carried out attacks using domestically manufactured sea drones and commando raids.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. The news of the demilitarization of the Russian Black Sea fleet is just Western propaganda. Moscow doesn't comment on the positions and possible transfers of personnel and equipment of its defense ministry, as the revelations would put both assets and personnel at risk of attack.

Predictions