Reports: Israel Preparing for Possible Limited Ground Invasion of South Lebanon

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Facts

  • Multiple media reports on Monday claimed that Israel is preparing for a possible ground invasion of South Lebanon that could begin in the coming days or hours. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday that the 'next phase of the war against Hezbollah will begin soon.'[1]
  • Hezbollah's deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem delivered a speech on Monday saying that despite the killing of much of its leadership — including the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah — Hezbollah was ready for an Israeli ground incursion, vowing to continue fighting.[2]
  • Qassem added that Hezbollah had continued to fire rockets into northern Israel, some as deep as 93 miles (150 km), which Qassem called 'the bare minimum.' Israeli media reported on Sunday that a ballistic missile had been fired toward Haifa.[3][4]
  • Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Monday that the Lebanese government was ready to implement a UN resolution calling for Hezbollah to withdraw from its positions south of the Litani River and deploy the Lebanese army to the region.[5]
  • Israeli strikes across Lebanon have killed over 1.6K people in Lebanon since the war began almost a year ago, with hundreds being killed just in the last two weeks. Mikati said that around 1M people have been displaced so far.[6][7]
  • Separately, an Israeli strike in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre killed a Hamas leader in Lebanon, Fatah al-Sherif, along with his wife and children. The UN's primary agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) said that al-Sherif had been a principal at a UNRWA-ran school but was suspended in March for his 'political activities.'[8]

Sources: [1]Guardian, [2]Al Jazeera, [3]New York Post, [4]Almayadeen, [5]France 24, [6]Reuters, [7]BBC News and [8]Timesofisrael.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Times. Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to Hezbollah's daily terror attacks along its northern border. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Israel has been incredibly patient regarding the situation in the north, but, after a year of daily terror attacks on Israeli civilians, Israel has been forced to deal with Hezbollah more aggressively. Indeed, Friday's strike on Nasrallah demonstrates that Israel has established new 'rules of engagement' that will prove to Hezbollah that its hubris has led to its destruction. Israel wants peace, but it can't allow Hezbollah and other Iran-backed terror groups to threaten its society.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel has escalated the situation in the region every chance it has gotten, with the US supporting it every step of the way. Indeed, Israel may expand its genocidal campaign that began in Gaza to Lebanon. Though the US, the most powerful country in the world, has continued its charade that it wants de-escalation, the reality is the US fully supports Israel's crimes across the region. Hamas and Hezbollah may be weakened, but resistance to Israel's expansionist project is inevitable.
  • Narrative D, as provided by Almayadeen. Hezbollah and Lebanon have experienced immense suffering for supporting Palestine against Israel's genocidal actions, yet the group will continue its noble fight. Hezbollah opened a support front with Israel to stand in solidarity with Gaza which has faced a genocidal Israeli campaign. Its attacks will end when Israel withdraws from Gaza. Nonetheless, Hezbollah is ready and able to defend Lebanon from Israeli aggression.

Predictions