Reports: Israel Concerned Over Possible ICC Arrest Warrants

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Facts

• Reportedly due to concerns that the International Criminal Court (ICC) will issue arrest warrants for top Israeli officials over allegations that Israel deliberately induced famine conditions in Gaza, Israeli media reported that the US is working to prevent the ICC from moving forward.¹
• Bloomberg reported on Monday that the US and some of its allies 'have begun a quiet diplomatic effort' to convince the Hague that issuing arrest warrants for top Israeli officials would sink negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding a cease-fire and the release of hostages.²
• The ICC has not indicated that warrants are imminent and has made no comment on the claims. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that Israel 'will never accept any attempt by the ICC to undermine its inherent right of self-defence.'³
• Meanwhile, Egyptian, Qatari, and Hamas officials met in Cairo on Monday as Hamas considers a new proposal for a cease-fire that reportedly includes 'restoration of sustainable calm' — something an unnamed diplomatic source called 'a way to agree to a permanent ceasefire without calling it that.'⁴
• Mediators expressed hope on Monday that this round of negotiations may be successful, with an unnamed Hamas official in Turkey saying that 'there is hope.' The official cautioned, however, that there were still key points that required clarification.⁵
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who traveled to Saudi Arabia on Monday, called the proposal 'extraordinarily generous.' Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday that his country would 'suspend the operation' in Rafah if a hostage release deal was agreed upon.⁶

Sources: ¹The Times of Israel (a), ²The Times of Israel (b), ³Al Jazeera, ⁴CNN, ⁵Washington Post and ⁶BBC News.

Narratives

• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though the ICC has not released anything official, it would be absolutely abhorrent if Israeli leaders were charged with crimes for simply trying to protect their country from the existential threat posed by Hamas terrorists. The Israeli government has a moral and legal obligation to its citizens to defend them, and it will continue to do so. Israel has gone above and beyond to get humanitarian aid into Gaza, and accusations to the contrary are completely unfounded.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Bloomberg. The US is committed to making sure that its allies comply with international law regarding armed conflict, but this is a complicated situation. The US has made significant progress in the last six months in terms of leveraging Israel and other regional actors, and any action by the ICC that charged Israeli leaders with war crimes would jeopardize all that hard work. The US and its allies have the tools to find a productive solution to this conflict.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. The double standards applied to Israel become more and more ludicrous with each passing day of this immoral and unnecessary war. Just the mere suggestion that Israel may face consequences for its actions is enough to elicit a diplomatic campaign by the US to prevent such ethical moves. Israel has committed regular massacres in Gaza in addition to the famine it has created. It should be treated like any other rogue state.

Predictions