Report: Zelenskyy's Bid to Join NATO Facing Pushback from Allies

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Facts

• Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's proposed 'victory plan' for his country — which hinges on Ukraine being invited to join NATO — is facing resistance from the country's key allies, according to a report in Politico this week.^[1]
• According to US and NATO officials cited in the report, the US and Germany are among key Ukrainian allies resistant to extend an immediate invitation to the military alliance, wary that such a move would trigger a wider NATO-Russia war if executed while Ukraine was still fighting the conflict.^[1]
• In comments to the press earlier in the week, Zelenskyy himself conceded that the US and Germany were reluctant, but said that he hoped for a more favorable American stance after the US election next month. This, Zelenskyy said, would pressure Germany to change its opinion.^[2]
• However, according to Politico, Spain, Belgium and Slovenia are also reluctant to immediately invite Ukraine into NATO — but for now are reportedly content to hide behind the reservations of the more powerful allies, rather than publicly air their disagreements.^[1]
• Meanwhile, Slovakia's Robert Fico and Hungary's Viktor Orbán — considered Russia's closest allies in Europe — have been more vocal about their opposition. Earlier this month, Fico said that, 'Ukraine's accession to NATO would be a good basis for a third world war.'^[3][4]
• Orbán, for his part, said Zelenskyy's plans were 'more than terrifying,' and urged European countries to seek a peaceful settlement rather than aggravate the conflict.^[4]

Sources: ^[1]Politico, ^[2]Associated Press, ^[3]Euronews and ^[4]The Kyiv Independent.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Politico. The US and Germany have been Ukraine's biggest supporters, but it must be understood that its immediate invitation into NATO is simply not possible while the conflict is ongoing. This would lead to a wider NATO-Russia war that could escalate further still.
• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. If Ukraine becomes a properly confirmed member of NATO, it will show Russian Pres. Putin that he will be lost from a geopolitical point of view. As Ukrainain Pres. Zelenskyy said, Russia must recognize that Europe has borders and independent states, and everyone has the right to choose their own future.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Dragging Ukraine into the NATO military alliance is what started this whole conflict in the first place, particularly NATO's cultivation of Ukrainian nationalism that resulted in a violation of rights against the country's Russian-speaking citizens. Without eliminating the root cause of the conflict, it's impossible to achieve a fair settlement.

Predictions