Report: 2023 Was Likely The Hottest in 100K Years

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Facts

• 2023 was likely the warmest in 100K years, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. 2023's global temperatures broke the previous year's records significantly.¹
• According to reporting from the Service, 2023 was 1.48ºC warmer than the pre-industrial average, surpassing the previous record in 2016 of +1.25ºC.²
• Deputy head of the EU climate agency Samantha Burgess said that last year differed from others because it was the 'first year with all days over one degree warmer than the pre-industrial period,' and that 'temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.'³
• According to the report, every month from June to December in 2023 was warmer than in previous years with July and August being the warmest months on record.⁴
• Researchers pointed to greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and El Niño weather conditions as reasons behind the rise in global temperatures. The report details how strong El Niño conditions are expected through at least April, with global temperatures expected to continue to rise.⁵
• The researchers said that the +1.5ºC target set by countries in Paris in 2015 will likely be surpassed for the first time in 2024.¹

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²CBC, ³France 24, ⁴Copernicus and ⁵ABC News.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by NOAA Climate.gov. With all the doom and gloom around climate change, it's worth noting that the impacts of a warming planet are not entirely bad. As temperatures increase, agricultural conditions in some parts of the planet may actually improve, as the growing seasons will be longer. A loss of Arctic sea ice would also benefit commercial shipping, as the Northwest Passage will be accessible for longer periods of the year. The question is whether the costs will outweigh the benefits — but there will be benefits nonetheless that often get overlooked.
• Narrative B, as provided by CBC. 2023's warming is alarming. As the planet continues to warm, climate events like wildfires, hurricanes, droughts, and floods are likely to get worse. This wasn't just a wayward data point as 2023 smashed previous tallies. Granted there was an El Niño pattern that contributed to the high tally and will probably subside before 2024 ends — but the dreaded +1.5ºC threshold is likely to be surpassed in the next 12 months. There's a real chance that hazardous climate impacts could multiply in the year ahead.

Predictions