Report: US Talked Ukraine Down from Attacking Moscow

Facts

• Fearful of severe Russian retaliation, US officials talked Ukraine down from a plan to attack Moscow, according to a new Washington Post report. The attacks were planned to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the war; on Feb. 22, two days before, the CIA circulated a report — revealed by the recent Pentagon leaks — that stated Kyiv "had agreed, at Washington’s request, to postpone strikes" on Moscow.¹
• The report was criticized by Mykhailo Podoliak, an advisor to Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy. He said: "Such publications, with the obligatory reference to 'anonymous sources', fulfill only one catastrophic function: they shape public opinion in Western capitals as if Ukraine was an unreasonable, infantile, and impulsive country that is dangerous for adults to trust with serious weapons."²
• Meanwhile, a separate Politico report suggested that Biden admin. officials are quietly bracing for the possibility that Ukraine's spring counteroffensive will fall short of expectations, thus increasing the pressure on the US to seek a political solution. While US officials said they're providing Ukraine with everything it needs for a successful attack, they're also broaching the subject of a possible ceasefire if the plans don't succeed.³
• Elsewhere, Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov traveled to New York where he chaired a UN Security Council meeting on Monday during Russia's month-long presidency of the body, where he was condemned by UN chief António Guterres, as well as representatives of the US, UK, France, and other Western allies. Lavrov meanwhile defended the invasion.⁴
• At the meeting, the US ambassador to the UN also called on Russia to release former US Marine Paul Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. Whelan was sentenced to 16 years imprisonment on espionage charges in 2020 while Gershkovich currently awaits trial on the same offenses.⁵
• Meanwhile, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman criticized the US for failing to issue visas to reporters due to travel with Lavrov to the meeting. She threatened that Russia would respond accordingly without specifying what actions it would take.⁶

Sources: ¹Washington Post, ²Ukrainska Pravda, ³POLITICO, ⁴Associated Press, ⁵Al Jazeera, and ⁶TASS.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by PBS NewsHour. This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup." This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by National Security Archive. NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Predictions