Report: US Reverses Offensive Arms Sale Ban to Saudi Arabia

Facts

• On Friday, Reuters reported that US Pres. Joe Biden had decided to lift a ban on exporting offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, scrapping the prohibition instituted earlier in his term.^[1]
• The ban, imposed in 2021 in reaction to civilian casualties from Saudi Arabia's intervention in Yemen, has been lifted as Saudi Arabia hasn't conducted any air strikes in Yemen since a 2022 truce. According to a White House official, the Saudis have 'met their end of the deal.'^[1]
• The Iran-backed Houthis ousted Yemen's government in 2014 and have been at war with a Saudi Arabia-led alliance since 2015. The conflict has reportedly forced 80% of the population to rely on humanitarian aid.^[2]
• Amid Houthis' missile attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Hezbollah's strikes from Lebanon into Israel in response to Israel's war against Hamas, the official said, 'Saudi Arabia has remained a close strategic partner.'^[3]
• Sales to the country could resume as early as next week, with Congress — which must approve foreign weapons deals before they come into effect — being briefed on the rescindment.^[4]
• The US has been attempting to improve relations with Saudi Arabia since before the Israel-Hamas war and has offered to expand cooperation in defense and civil nuclear programs. It has also attempted to broker a Saudi-Israeli diplomatic normalization agreement, which has stalled since the war's start.^[3]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]Jerusalem Post, ^[3]Washington Post and ^[4]The New Arab.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Newsweek. The US will have no grounds to criticize anyone for human rights abuses as it seeks to reconcile with an authoritarian state. Saudi Arabia has utterly devastated Yemen and has committed more violations of human rights than anyone can count. For the sake of pragmatism, accountability and justice for those who have suffered under Riyadh's autocratic rule will be entirely ignored, and the kingdom will have the weapons to continue unabated.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Defense News. Iran is the biggest threat to peace in the Middle East, and it's in everyone's best interests to support Saudi Arabia as a counterweight. Saudi Arabia has intercepted Houthi missiles with US arms, something they wouldn't have in their possession if the anti-Saudi crowd got their way. Rapprochement with Saudi Arabia makes sound foreign policy sense and will help ease the threat of the region's worst human rights abuser: Iran.

Predictions