Report: US Remains Unconvinced on Ukraine's Possible Use of Long-Range Weapons in Russia

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Facts

  • The US, under the administration of Pres. Joe Biden, remains unconvinced that it should grant Ukraine authority to use long-range Western weapons to strike deep into Russian territory, according to US officials who spoke to the Associated Press this week.[1]
  • As Biden and Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepare to meet next week, US officials said they have asked Ukraine to elaborate on how such weapons — if provided — would be used in line with Kyiv's war objectives.[1]
  • When Biden and Zelenskyy meet at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, Zelenskyy is also expected to present the US with Ukraine's 'victory plan' — what he described as a plan that would push Russia to seek peace in the conflict.[2]
  • Speaking in his nightly address on Wednesday, Zelenskyy said such a plan was now fully prepared. 'Everything has been worked out,' he said. 'The most important thing now is the determination to implement it.'[3]
  • Elsewhere in the conflict, a report in the Guardian on Friday, citing Russian military documents said to be seized by Ukraine during its offensive into Kursk, revealed that Russia's military had anticipated a possible attack on the Russian border region and even planned for it — raising further questions as to how Ukraine could capture the territory it did.[4]
  • According to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military think tank that tracks troop positions in the conflict, Ukrainian forces continued to launch assaults and advanced in one salient of the Kursk region of Russia over the past day. However, ISW's mapping showed that Russian forces have largely corralled Ukraine's Kursk assault and were reclaiming territory on the peripheries of Ukrainian gains, namely in the region's southwest.[5]
  • Meanwhile, in Ukraine, while ISW reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces traded territory near the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk over the past day, Russian forces made a number of confirmed gains elsewhere in the region, including near Chasiv Yar, as well as in the regions of Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. On Friday, Ukraine's military continued to report a heightening of Russian military activity — stating there were 226 combat clashes over the past 24 hours.[5][6]

Sources: [1]Associated Press, [2]www.euractiv.com, [3]Ukrainska Pravda (a), [4]Guardian, [5]Understandingwar and [6]Ukrainska Pravda (b).

Narratives

  • Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. Because of current restrictions on long-range weapons, Russia simply moves its weapons out of range, hampering Ukraine's ability to put any pressure on its military. Ukraine has waited too long to receive these permissions.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Should NATO countries lift restrictions and allow their long-range weapons to strike Russia, Moscow will have no choice but to see this as NATO's direct involvement in the war and respond accordingly. This would be a fundamental escalation of the conflict — the West needs to tread carefully.

Predictions