Report: US Must Prepare Simultaneous Wars With China, Russia

Facts

• A new bipartisan congressional report released Thursday calls on the US to step up its military readiness for potential simultaneous wars with China and Russia and to expand its conventional and nuclear arms arsenal.¹
• The 160-page report, issued by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US, argues that Washington is 'ill-prepared' and lacks a comprehensive strategy to deal with the prospect of facing two states having the same nuclear power as US forces.²
• The panel added that the US must fully fund its 30-year nuclear weapons modernization program that started in 2010, including the production of additional stealth bombers and new nuclear submarines, to 'deter and defeat both adversaries simultaneously.'³
• Established by the FY 2022 National Defense Authorization Act to assess threats to the US and make strategic recommendations, the Commission also called for the deployment of more tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe while pushing for the strengthening and expansion of alliances.⁴
• China's stockpile of nuclear warheads is estimated to grow to at least 1.5K warheads by 2035, up from 400 in 2021, while Russia's nuclear forces will likely remain the world's largest by 2035, with the new US strategy needing to take into account the potential for joint military action by Beijing and Moscow.⁵
• According to a July Congressional Budget Office report, modernizing the US nuclear force would cost $756B over the next decade. This figure does not include the costs of the additional nuclear initiatives recommended by the report, which further warned the US lacks the industrial capacity to keep up with nuclear modernization requirements.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²FT, ³Reuters, ⁴IDA, ⁵The Washington Times and ⁶Defense News.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Common Dreams. The Congressional report sounds more like a military-industrial complex public relations stunt than a serious study. Its conclusions are irresponsible given that any decision to boost the number of US strategic nuclear weapons risks triggering a new nuclear arms race with China and Russia. Instead of following the archaic Cold War logic with unpredictable consequences for the US and the world, it would be in the US national security interest to pursue arms control and disarmament diplomacy.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Defense News. The report is a powerful reminder that the US needs to adjust its strategic posture and strengthen its nuclear deterrent given China and Russia's nuclear modernization push and aggressive foreign policies. If Washington hopes to protect the rules-based international order, US nuclear strategy must remain effective in a two-nuclear-peer arena, which also requires higher defense spending. The Cold War teaches that autocratic regimes understand only the language of deterrence.

Predictions