Report: US, Japan to Sign Revamped Security Pact

Facts

• For the first time since their military relationship began 60 years ago, the US and Japan will reportedly sign a new security agreement amid rising tensions with China and North Korea.¹
• The agreement reportedly includes strengthening the US command center in Japan and creating a joint command center between the US military and the Japanese land, sea, and air forces by March 2025.²
• Washington is also expected to appoint a four-star commander — the highest peacetime rank — in Japan, who will lead the proposed joint command and supervise Japanese troops. This system is already in place between the US and South Korea.³
• At least 54K US troops, 45K dependents, and 8K civilian contractors are based in Japan. Since the end of World War II, Tokyo has long held the position that it would 'never' have land, sea, and air forces. However, since 2015, the country has steadily increased its military spending.¹
• Japan, which has pledged to spend 2% of its GDP on defense by 2027, has long asked for a US four-star general to be based in the country. If this occurs, it would reportedly shift the US Pacific Fleet — part of its Indo-Pacific Command — from Hawaii to Japan.⁴
• The report comes ahead of a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US Pres. Joe Biden next month in Washington, during which they're expected to discuss command and control operations.²

Sources: ¹Forbes, ²The Economic Times, ³Reuters.com and ⁴The Japan Times.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Csis. While Japan may not need a South Korea-style joint command partnership for legal reasons, Washington and Tokyo need to bolster their military operations to combat China's aggression in the region. This should include Japanese and American personnel stationed in both countries, who aim to conduct bilateral operations alongside other regional allies like South Korea and Australia. With 60 years of partnership under their belts, the US and Japan have no reason not to build a strong shared defense and surveillance apparatus.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. The US and Japan are both eager to grow their military partnership to bring China into a war over Taiwan. As the US is expanding its military presence to maintain its global hegemony through military force, Japan is willing to go along with it to maintain its position as the economic leader of East Asia. Through its recent series of military agreements in the region, the US hopes to make its allies do the dirty work should a conflict arise. However, this will backfire, as Tokyo will also ensure American troops are on the front lines.

Predictions