Report: US, China Held First Informal Nuclear Talks in Five Years

Facts

• At the first semi-official bilateral nuclear talks in five years, Chinese delegates in March reassured their US counterparts that Beijing will not use, or threaten to use, nuclear weapons against Taiwan, Reuters reported on Friday.¹
• According to the report, scholar David Santoro — the US organizer of the 'Track Two' talks — said the Chinese representatives expressed firm belief that China 'can prevail in a conventional fight over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons.'²
• The semi-official Track Two format usually involves former officials and academics who are in a position to authoritatively represent the position of their respective governments but are albeit not directly involved in any decision-making processes. 'Track One' talks are considered official government-to-government discussions.¹
• One of the main concerns the US side sought to address, Santoro said, was whether China remains committed to its policy of no-first-use and minimum deterrence, which stems from the development of its first nuclear bomb in the early 1960s.³
• Summarizing Beijing's position, Santoro said the Chinese representatives told their US counterparts that China maintains these policies and that they are 'not interested in reaching nuclear parity' with the US, 'let alone superiority.'⁴
• The US Dept. of State reportedly was aware of the talks but did not participate. A State Dept. official reportedly characterized the discussions as potentially 'beneficial.'⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²The Express Tribune, ³AsiaOne, ⁴The Japan Times and ⁵Khaama Press.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Semafor. The Chinese assurance that Beijing will not offensively use nuclear weapons against Taiwan is good news. However, such talks cannot replace formal negotiations, and the reality is that China recently rejected US efforts to resume bilateral arms control talks. Moreover, Beijing's claim to maintain a no-first-use policy is increasingly at odds with its growing nuclear stockpile. To make the world safer, China needs to enter into basic negotiations to avoid the risks of uncontrolled nuclear escalation.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by People's World. The talks may be an encouraging sign, but the reporting paints a biased picture. It's the US that is fueling the nuclear race and engaging in nuclear saber-rattling to allegedly 'protect' Taiwan. Moreover, Washington dismissed PRC calls for a no-first-use treaty between nuclear powers, while holding many times more nuclear warheads than China. Beijing remains convinced that the only way to avoid the danger of an apocalyptic disaster is through nuclear disarmament.

Predictions