Report: US Allegedly Warned Iran of Islamic State Group Attack

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Facts

  • According to a Wall Street Journal report, US officials allegedly warned Iran of an impending attack by the Islamic State group before the Jan. 3 suicide bombings in Kerman that killed over 80 people — Iran's worst such incident since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.1
  • The US reportedly sent out the alert based on information gathered from ISIS-Khorasan in Afghanistan. US officials characterized the warning as part of its long-standing 'duty to warn' posture to warn other nations of terrorist threats — even those with more adversarial relationships with Washington.2
  • The warning was sent a week before the attack at a memorial ceremony for Qassem Soleimani, former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, killed in a 2019 US drone strike.3
  • US officials further suggested an intent to warn Tehran to save 'innocent lives.' Iran's official state media hasn't yet acknowledged the gesture.4
  • The warning was particularly notable given the surge in attacks by Iranian proxies on US personnel throughout the region in the aftermath of the Gaza conflict. It's unclear exactly how the message was given since Tehran and Washington don't share formal diplomatic relations.2
  • Some foreign policy observers believe the US may have tried to prevent a disproportionate Iranian response that could further destabilize the region or that it was a conciliatory signal to Tehran given heightened regional tensions.1

Sources: 1WSJ, 2CNN, 3CBS and 4Voice of America.

Narratives

  • Anti-Iran narrative, as provided by Iran International. The White House and CIA are likely to have been involved in the decision to warn Iran ahead of the deadly Jan. 3 suicide bombings. This indicates how serious the US was in both looking to save innocent lives as well as signaling an intended thaw in its mood towards Tehran. Yet Iran ignored the warning for reasons that are unclear. This continues a pattern of Iran rejecting the good faith shown by the US in recent times — including last year's deal to unfreeze $6B in Iranian money held in South Korea in exchange for the release of US-Iranian citizens.
  • Pro-Iran narrative, as provided by Responsible Statecraft. Tehran is fighting a 'war on terror' of its own. Exacerbated by simmering tensions caused by the Israel-Hamas war, this includes Israel's airstrike that killed five senior members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps in Damascus on Jan. 20 or the Dec. 25 strike that killed Iranian general Seyed Razi Mousavi in the same city, as well as the recent flare-up with Pakistan. Iran faces so many enemies — including the Islamic State group and US hegemony — and is justified in being cautious about all the information it receives in a volatile threat environment.

Predictions