Report: Ukraine's EU Allies Quietly Discuss Prospect of Negotiations

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Facts

  • Publicly, Ukraine's EU allies continue their staunch statements of support for the country's war aims. However, according to a report in the Washington Post on Wednesday, in closed-door meetings, there is 'a quiet but growing shift toward the notion that the war with Russia will end only through negotiations.'[1]
  • According to 10 current and former EU and NATO diplomats spoken to by the publication, some are actively laying the foundation for such talks and they include the once-taboo subject of land concessions to achieve a deal.[1]
  • These notions were reportedly spurred on by Pres.-elect Donald Trump's election victory and a growingly bleak battlefield situation.[1]
  • Meanwhile, a report in the New York Times on Wednesday similarly suggested that there was a softening on the prospect of land concessions from Ukrainian officials, reporting that acquiring security guarantees that would hold and prevent a further Russian invasion was viewed as a bigger priority.[2]
  • On the ground, Russia's defense ministry claimed to have captured the settlements of Rivnopil on Wednesday and Voznesenka on Thursday — both in the Donetsk region. The claims could not be independently confirmed.[3][4]
  • However, according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, which tracks troop positions in the conflict, Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and within the town of Toretsk elsewhere in the Donetsk region over the past day. Ukraine, meanwhile, regained lost positions near Chasiv Yar.[5]

Sources: [1]Washington Post, [2]New York Times, [3]Alarabiya, [4]TASS and [5]Understandingwar.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Washington Post. With Trump returning to the White House, threatening to cut aid to Ukraine and leaving it with a bad deal, EU leaders realize it may be better to brace this difficult topic themselves in the hopes it will at least secure Ukraine's long-term stability.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Ukraine's allies are finally beginning to see sense that any peace deal, which Russia has long advocated for, would have to take on the realities on the ground. This is a welcome development.

Predictions