Report: Ukraine to be Told it Must Address Corruption Before NATO Membership Can Proceed

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Facts

• Ahead of a NATO summit in Washington next week, Ukraine and its supporters have reportedly been pushing US and NATO officials into providing a firmer pledge for bringing the country into the military alliance.¹
• Ukraine initially formally applied for membership in September 2022 — months after Russia launched its invasion. However, while officials have stressed that the country's future is in NATO, the closest they have come to a firm pledge is to state that it will happen 'one day.'²
• Those aspirations are expected to receive another blow when officials meet in Washington on July 9, with a US State Department source telling the Telegraph that Ukraine must take more action on corruption before talks of NATO membership can proceed.³
• 'We have to step back and applaud everything that Ukraine has done in the name of reforms over the last two-plus years,' the source said.³
• They added: 'As they continue to make those reforms, we want to commend them, we want to talk about additional steps that need to be taken, particularly in the area of anti-corruption. It is a priority for many of us around the table.'³
• However, Ukraine is to receive some 'good news' at the summit according to a State Department official speaking to Reuters. Namely, that Ukraine will likely receive more missile defense systems.⁴

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²POLITICO, ³The Telegraph and ⁴Reuters.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Atlantic Council. If the US doesn't provide a firm commitment to Ukraine on NATO membership, it signals to Putin that he is able to influence American foreign policy by launching an illegal invasion. The US must stick to its guns and realize that having Ukraine in NATO is the best way to protect American interests in the region.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Guardian. Bringing Ukraine into NATO would not only end up unleashing further devastation to Ukraine, but this would likely make the whole military alliance weaker as well. Such a step would only play into Putin's hands by justifying his claim that he's fighting against expansionist NATO policies.

Predictions