Report: Trump Target of Docs Criminal Investigation

Facts

  • Federal prosecutors reportedly sent a letter to former US Pres. Donald Trump's lawyers last week informing them that he's the target of a criminal investigation for his handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago home, people familiar with the matter reported Wednesday.1
  • The lawyers then reportedly met Monday with special counsel Jack Smith, who's leading the investigation, where they allegedly asked prosecutors not to charge Trump.1
  • Trump, responding via his Truth Social website, denied he was told he’s going to be indicted and claimed he’s done “nothing wrong.”2
  • The news comes at the same time it has been reported that a grand jury in Florida has also been investigating Trump's possession of classified documents.3
  • The Florida grand jury heard witnesses Wednesday, including former Trump spokesperson Taylor Budowich.4
  • This investigation isn't just about Trump's possession of classified documents after his presidency but his alleged refusal to return them when requested. The FBI issued a subpoena for any materials in Trump’s possession last year.5

Sources: 1Guardian, 2USA Today, 3Daily Mail, 4New York Times, and 5Independent.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. If the meeting between Trump’s lawyers and the federal prosecutors had gone well, then the former president wouldn’t have followed it with one of his online tantrums. Clearly, this investigation, now with two known grand juries, is closing in on Trump. And he knows it.
  • Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by PJ Media. The US isn’t a banana republic yet, but if federal prosecutors go forward with these indictments, it’ll be the biggest case of election interference in US history. Joe Biden and his corrupt DOJ are clearly abusing their power to target Trump in an effort to sideline his top rival for 2024.

Predictions

Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?
The aggregate of 168 Metaculus community forecasters was 98% on Jun 11, 2023.