Report: Putin Prepared to 'Freeze' War on Current Battlefield Lines

Facts

• Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin is prepared to end the war in Ukraine with a negotiated settlement that recognizes current frontlines, four highly placed Russian sources told the Reuters news agency this week.¹
• According to the report published Friday, three of the sources said the Russian leader had expressed frustration over what he described as the West's attempts to impede negotiations, as well as Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy's decision to rule out the prospect of talks.¹
• 'Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire — to freeze the war,' one source said. However, freezing the war on current battlefield lines was a non-negotiable for the Russian president, the sources added.²
• They said this would allow Putin to sell the result as a victory to the Russian people, further stating that after securing a fresh six-year term in March, this would allow Putin to put the war behind him and avoid a second mobilization — something that would dint his approval ratings in Russia.³
• However, Zelenskyy has repeatedly rejected settling the war on Putin's terms and outlawed negotiations with the Russian leader in 2022. He has further vowed to retake all Ukrainian sovereign territory — 18% of which is currently under Russian control — as well as Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. For this reason, Reuters reported, Putin may seek to bypass Zelenskyy and negotiate with Washington.⁴
• This was further hinted at by Putin in public comments on Friday. He drew attention to the expiry of Zelenskyy's five-year term on May 21, stating that negotiations need to be held but adding: 'Who shall we negotiate with? We are aware that the legitimacy of the current head of state has come to an end.'⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Sky News, ³I24news, ⁴Metro and ⁵Ukrainska Pravda.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. These phony signals from Putin's entourage should be ignored by the West. Putin simply plans to derail the Ukrainian Peace Summit that will be held in Switzerland on June 15-16. This is the only realistic pathway for peace in Ukraine, and Putin is scared of it being successful.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Whatever comes out of the Ukrainian Peace Summit is null and void. How can you try to have a negotiated settlement to the war with only one side of the conflict? If Ukraine is real about bringing the war to an end, it must negotiate with Russia.

Predictions