Report: Possible Harris Win Undermines $50B Ukraine Loan

Facts

• The prospect of US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate for president, winning the 2024 election, has undermined a Western plan to loan Ukraine $50B, according to a report in Politico.^[1]
• At a G7 leaders meeting in June, when former Pres. Donald Trump had strong momentum in the election, US and Western leaders agreed — in principle — to provide Ukraine with a loan coming from the interest on frozen Russian assets. It was a means of, as one diplomat put it, 'Trump-proofing' Western military support for Ukraine.^[2]
• Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin described the loan as 'theft' and said its deployment, if agreed on, 'will not go unpunished.' In response, Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, said, 'There is no sense at all in which it's theft.'^[3]
• 'Russia's funds are sitting in cash,' Yellen said, 'but they're generating income for the institution, which Russia has no claim on, so there's no legal issue here.'^[3]
• However, according to the report Politico on Wednesday, the possibility of a Harris election win has removed the urgency on finalizing the loan's details. Politico further reported that US and EU diplomats have also been split on some of the agreement's finer points.^[1]

Sources: ^[1]POLITICO, ^[2]Barrons and ^[3]The Hill.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The $50B loan for Ukraine was seen as a wider necessity with the prospect of Trump returning to the White House. Now that Harris is leading in many polls, the urgency of getting this deal agreed is not as imminent as Harris would likely continue US military support for Ukraine.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. The idea that this was ever a loan is illegitimate. This is the theft of Russian central bank assets, which Ukraine will never repay. The money will disappear into the abyss of loan repayments Ukraine has to make, as well as its budget of theft and embezzlement.

Predictions