Report: Pentagon to Launch Task Force to Guard Red Sea

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Facts

  • According to a report published in The War Zone, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to announce a multinational effort this week — reputedly similar to the existing Task Force 153 — to expand maritime protection for Red Sea shipping.1
  • Dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian, the task force is reportedly designed to provide reassurance to commercial shipping companies and is expected to involve Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.2
  • The report comes as freight giants CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) suspended operations in the Red Sea until further notice amid escalating Houthi attacks from Yemen's ports, raising concerns over global supply chains.3
  • Iran-backed Houthi rebels have threatened to attack any vessels heading to Israeli ports in protest of its siege on the Gaza Strip. On Saturday, the US destroyer USS Carney shot down 14 unmanned aerial vehicles "launched as a drone wave from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen."4
  • However, maritime traffic was normal on Sunday, with the head of Egypt's Suez Canal Authority reporting that 77 ships had crossed the canal, including some belonging to shipping lines that had previously announced temporary diversions.5
  • Meanwhile, US Central Command and UK Maritime Trade Operations didn't record any assault on foreign ships off the Yemeni coast over the past 24 hours, as Houthi chief negotiator Mohammed Abdul Salam claimed there were Oman-brokered talks with undisclosed "international partners."6

Sources: 1The Drive, 2Guardian, 3Business Insider, 4CBS, 5Middle East Monitor, and 6Arab News.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. The Middle East is on the edge, and the actions of the US and its allies are only exacerbating matters. While provocation of any kind must be avoided, responses must also be tempered. The region can't afford a widening of conflict beyond Gaza. De-escalation is the best course of action, and diplomatically nudging Iran towards defusing the situation is the only way out.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Haaretz. Though there's indeed a risk that a forceful response may escalate regional tensions to the point that Iran and its other proxy groups could engage in the conflict, Houthi rebels have left the US and its allies with very few options to protect commercial shipping. Hopefully, this purely defensive task force and diplomacy will be enough to deter further attacks. Otherwise, a more offensive approach to the Houthis will be required.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 50% chance that Yemen will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by May 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.