Report: 61% of Americans to Have a Cardiovascular Disease by 2050

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Facts

  • A new report from the American Heart Association (AHA) estimates that 61% of American adults will have some form of cardiovascular disease (CVD) by the year 2050.1
  • The report also predicts that 45M Americans will have a CVD — if high blood pressure is excluded — or suffer a stroke by the middle of the century, up from 28M in 2020. CVDs include high blood pressure, heart failure, and arrhythmia.2
  • The direct and indirect costs of CVD in the US by 2050 is estimated to be around $1.8T. Heart disease and stroke are the first and fifth leading causes of death in the US, respectively, with annual CVD deaths worldwide expected to top 1M.3
  • The increase will be driven by conditions such as diabetes and obesity, which are predicted to affect approximately 26% and 60% of the population respectively. The incidence of strokes will nearly double, from affecting 10M to 20M adults.3
  • AHA chief executive officer Nancy Brown says that the CVD landscape is changing due to a 'tsunami of rising health care costs, an older population living longer and increasing numbers of people from under-resourced populations.'4
  • The AHA says it does expect smoking and the number of Americans getting inadequate physical activity to decrease over time, and that diabetes and weight loss drugs like Ozempic could lead to a 'sea change' in treatment.4

Sources: 1CBS, 2CNN, 3American Heart Association and 4New York Post.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Intelligencer. At this very moment, we have a drug available that not only treats diabetes but greatly helps against all manner of cardiovascular diseases. Cultural discourse has obscured the reality that drugs like Ozempic are wildly effective and safe, and their widespread use could change the chronic disease landscape in this country. We need to expand access to these life-saving drugs before this coming CVD catastrophe.
  • Narrative B, as provided by New York Times. Instead of resorting to pharmaceutical interventions, we need to go to the source of America's ailments. At the root of the CVD crisis is a low-quality food supply that encourages people to eat food that is bereft of nutritional value. If we start treating food as medicine — by taxing what's unhealthy and subsidizing what is healthy — we can finally get a grip on cardiovascular disease.

Predictions