Report: Kyiv's Counteroffensive Will Fail to Meet Key Goal

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Facts

  • According to a US intelligence assessment briefed to members of Congress, Ukraine's counteroffensive will likely fail to reach the southeastern city of Melitopol.1
  • The US intelligence officials believe that if Kyiv fails to reach Melitopol, one of the key goals of the counteroffensive — to break up Moscow's control over Ukraine's southern regions, thereby severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea — may not be accomplished.2
  • People familiar with the classified assessment told The Washington Post that Ukraine's forces — currently fighting for territory near the village of Robotyne — will fail to reach the occupied city as the Russian troops have set up miles-deep minefields to impede their advances.3
  • Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War, after Ukraine claimed "partial success" at Robotyne earlier in the week, suggested: "The Ukrainian forces' ability to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne — which Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, time, and resources to defend — remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time."4
  • However, at least three rows of defensive lines — lined with mines, artillery, and a system of trenches — remain between Ukraine's forces and Melitopol. Even if Ukraine can pierce through the lines, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute doubts Kyiv's depleted forces could advance.5
  • The assessment, based on Russia's defense proficiency, has been presented to many Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill. While some Republicans are reportedly bringing into question further spending packages, some Democrats have reportedly faulted the Biden admin. for not sending more powerful weapons to Ukraine earlier in time.6

Sources: 1The Telegraph, 2The Washington Post, 3Express.co.uk, 4CNN, 5The Week, and 6Business Insider.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by The Washington Post. Ukraine will likely fail to make significant advances in its counteroffensive and is expected to fall well short of its stated goals. Even if Ukraine can penetrate Russia's multi layered defenses, how much further would these forces realistically be able to advance?
  • Narrative B, as provided by U.S. News & World Report. While the Ukrainian offensive may be advancing slowly against well-prepared Russian defensive lines, they continue to push forward and gain momentum in several axes of attack. Kyiv's forces will undoubtedly achieve their goals.

Predictions