Report: Israeli Intelligence Warns Hamas Will Survive Gaza War

Facts

• Israeli media reported on Thursday that Israel's military intelligence warned the country's leaders that even if the military successfully dismantles Hamas in Gaza, it will survive as 'a guerrilla group.” The intelligence report also claimed that Palestinians in Gaza still have “authentic support” for Hamas.¹
• The document was first discussed by figures within Israel's security apparatus last week before being reportedly shown to the country's political establishment on Monday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that Israel can defeat Hamas militarily.¹
• Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Friday that, according to four sources and satellite imagery, Egypt is building a buffer zone on the Gaza border seemingly as a contingency plan to accommodate Palestinians in case an Israeli offensive into Rafah prompts a mass exodus from Gaza.²
• Egypt, which denied reinforcing the border, has increasingly warned that an Israeli push into Rafah — in which some 1.5M displaced Palestinians have sought refuge — could be a humanitarian and political disaster. Israel said civilians in Rafah would be evacuated before an offensive.³
• A Palestinian from East Jerusalem carried out a shooting attack in southern Israel at Re'em Junction on Friday, killing two people and injuring four. Netanyahu said 'the entire country is on the frontline' and that attacks do not only come from Gaza.⁴
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed nearly 29K people in the strip, mainly women and children. The war has also created a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in Gaza).⁵

Sources: ¹The Times of Israel, ²FOX News, ³Reuters, ⁴I24news and ⁵Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by The Nation. Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over three months and almost 30K dead Palestinians, Israel has failed to kill Hamas' top leaders or to create conditions advantageous to returning the hostages and ending this long-drawn-out conflict. Even if Israel did manage to achieve the majority of its war goals, it still would be left without a clear plan of action for the day after the war. Destroying a group like Hamas is a fool's errand, and Netanyahu has dug Israel into a hole that it will have a tough time climbing out of. Israel should accept a comprehensive cease-fire.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though, of course, this war has not been easy, Israel has made steady progress in Gaza. As Israel's enemies should recognize, Israel's raw military power is not even up for debate, and the country will fight and negotiate as it sees fit to achieve its goals. Israel can continue this war for as long as needed, and Hamas must soften its demands and release the hostages if it wants to prevent a Rafah offensive.