Report: Israeli Gaza Division Warned of Hamas Attack 3 Weeks Before Oct. 7

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Facts

  • Israel's Kan public broadcaster reported on Monday that the Israeli army's Gaza Division had compiled a document three weeks before Hamas' Oct. 7 attack detailing how the group planned to break through the border fence and take 200-250 hostages.1
  • The document also reportedly detailed exercises conducted by elite Hamas units — including simulated raids on military posts and kibbutzim and abduction of soldiers and civilians — with detailed guidance on handling hostages once in Gaza.2
  • According to anonymous security sources, senior intelligence officials — at least within the Gaza Division — were aware of the document, which was reportedly circulated on Sept. 19. The Israeli government and top military leaders have contended they were not aware of an imminent attack at the time.3
  • The document did not, however, warn of the scale of the Oct. 7 attack, warning that dozens of militants could breach the border fence in three spots — far less than the estimated 3K militants who broke through the fence in 30 separate locations on Oct. 7.3
  • The head of the Gaza Division, Brigadier General Avi Rosenfeld, announced his resignation earlier this month, citing his failure to protect Israeli towns and villages in the Gaza envelope on Oct. 7.4
  • An investigation team is expected to present its initial findings to the military's Chief of Staff in the coming weeks.5

Sources: 1Middle East Eye, 2I24news, 3Timesofisrael, 4Middle East Monitor and 5Jerusalem Post.

Narratives

  • Left narrative, as provided by Haaretz.com. It should be obvious that the person most responsible for Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For Israeli society to move forward and effectively confront the existential terrorist threat that Hamas poses, Netanyahu must finally take responsibility for his failures. Though he may try to blame the military, even Netanyahu himself is aware that his destructive policies caused the security failures of Oct. 7.
  • Right narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though Netanyahu obviously made a mistake by not seeing just how atrocious Hamas could be, the military and security apparatus at large are primarily to blame for Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre. Indeed, the fact that the military is frantically trying to avoid an investigation indicates that it is aware of its responsibility for Oct. 7. The left is trying to scapegoat Netanyahu for the military's failures.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by JVP. Regardless of the bickering among Israel's political elite regarding security failures, one must remember that none of this began on Oct. 7. Israel was founded at the expense of the Palestinian people, and now, since Oct. 7, this tendency has moved toward genocide. Israeli forces killed hundreds of Palestinians in the West Bank in the months leading up to Oct. 7, yet this is systematically ignored in mainstream discourse. The only way to end this conflict is to end the occupation.

Predictions